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As skinner pointed out, behavioral problems have to be solved through behavioral engineering [2]. Cybernetics has full application in the present condition. As in alcohol consumption, smoking, drugs, gun crimes, wars, and sexually acquired diseases, the teleological Aristotelian causes are not tobacco, drugs, and any other issue, but the aberrant behavior.
The situation is not trivial and involves non-classic logic and other mathematical logics [3,4]. The neural topography corresponds to the nucleus accumbens. In general, people are very demanding from their governments; nevertheless, at the same time, they are deeply tolerant with their aberrant behavior promoting the dissemination of the SARSCoV-2 [4,5]. This paper examines how to deal with this problem from a scientific perspective, considering probability methods and classical and doxastic logic, using the Parsimony Principle aiming to reach immunity by minimizing the inoculum.
Many researchers think that the crucial question for controlling and managing a Covid pandemic is: What is the probability that a patient with a specific set of symptoms or signs has Covid? However, in congruency with Bayes methods the absolutely essential questions to control the pandemic in their territory are:. The last questions are related to multidisciplinary areas, mainly: Aristotelian, Modal and Doxastic logic for analyzing the belief of citizens and different groups of the country, and also for determining how to handle aberrant behavior of people, media, and government.
Virology and immunology behavioral engineering economics; Bayes methods for evaluating the probability of different scenarios; combinatorics, optimization, machine learning, and deep learning, and several artificial intelligence areas to evaluate and estimate different scenarios, and deep learning of medical advances in the field. Nevertheless, most of the articles about the Covid do not consider the real problem what are the key features of exponential functions to the last issues, but only how to measure the phenomenon, describe the situations, or present medical advances, such as new procedures or vaccines.
The present article deals with these issues, aiming to determine the best measures for controlling the pandemic. The paper takes part from scenarios with exponential functions of what are the key features of exponential functions confirmed patient; then analyses the action to change the latter function from a very exponential form to a weakly exponential or even a polynomial function.
Finally, we present the efficient policy around the world by the simple expedient of behavioral modification to diminish the amount of the inoculum and control the pandemic. Instead, to calculate the probability that a patient with a particular sign or symptom has Covid To do that, let us consider the next question:. Which is the probability that a patient with Covid has a specific symptom or sign D e? Nevertheless, it is well known that the evolution of an epidemic can be modeled with the deterministic differential equations 234 developed by Kermack and McKendrick [8].
R t : Number of individuals previously infected that never will be infected again they are immune or dead. There are several properties of these equations that we will not discuss in detail. For the moment, we can obtain stochastic differential equations only by changing I, S, and R in a stochastic variable with the distribution of each of them by a simple sample of previous cases. The significant advantage of that transformation is that we can apply modern stochastic methods to predict and control these kinds of variables [4,5].
Nonetheless, politicians, media communicators, and citizens genuinely concerned about Covidshould understand the last equations model for people in charge of handling a situation that can lead to the loss of the lives of millions of people. It is imprescindible to cogitate, rather than just understand, the paradigmatic compartment model of Kermack and McKendrick [8].
Depending on the nature of the parameters and variables, these equations can be stochastics or deterministic. However, they are not always entirely useless powerful stochastic modeling can take them as part of it. Also, from this case, we can determine useful properties for pandemic control. Firstly note that the value of variable N in equation does not change a lot in a short period.
Thus, it is clear causality does not imply correlation the sum of the three compartmental differential equations is equal to zero, and equation 6 is obtained:. Here we have the paradigmatic classical model by which the growth rate of the pandemic can be estimated.
It is based on three factors: the susceptibility of people S to be infected, the rate at which infections occur de facto infectivityand the infection rate. The resistance includes those who recover and those who die. This is what constitutes the SIR model, which corresponds to the simultaneous solution of the three differential equations, as described in by W. Kermack and A.
McKendrick [8]. Because for the initial condition, all the population is susceptible to being infected, x 0 is equal to one; thus, we can solve equations 4 using simple methods. For instance, taking equations 4b what are the key features of exponential functions 4c :. A discrete model can be obtained for each variable. For instance, from equation 6 we obtained:. In the SIR model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is defined as the number of cases that we expect to occur.
On average, in a homogeneous population, as a product of the infection provoked by a single contagious person, when the whole population is susceptible at the beginning of an epidemic before immunity starts to develop and before any attempt at immunization has been made. So, if a single patient infects two others, then the R 0 is 2 [8].
When the average R 0 in the population is greater than one, the infection will be disseminated according to the logistic how to make easy read that initially grows exponentially. This model is tragically described obeying the following differential equation:. In equation 7N why is phone not connecting to car the population size, K is the number of inhabitants supported by the environment, and r is population growth.
From this equation, we can obtain the next relations [8]:. We integrate both sides of the equation 10 and finding the N expression given by equation Thus, applying the right policies using a model like this can decrease the number of variables related to the number of affected people by the pandemic. We define a policy as a set of actions applied to achieve an objective. In general, the optimal police set are not the same in every period of time.
Thus, a specific method should be designed for that. When political correctness implies accepting false data, axioms, premises, or protocol clauses and apodictically generating fallacious conclusions, then politically correctness consists in being against logic, mathematics, and the advances of science. It means incorporating hypostases rather than hypothesis, that everyone talks about but, no one has ever demonstrated. We can scientifically study everything, including beliefs doxareligion, free will, unconsciousness, qualia, and so on, which is absolutely different from accepting that they are real.
All the mentioned ones are incompatible conditions with current scientific paradigms, in the same way as schizophrenia; the procedure is not beginning with the premise that hallucinations correspond to reality; however, it is the case that the patients have them. It is real the existence of the belief even though what is believed is non-existent.
A goal to acquire herd immunity with the lowest mortality has been historically reached through vaccination. However, many naïve proponents have the wishful thinking of strategies to reach herd immunity with low mortality. Typically, viral vaccines are classified into attenuated live viruses, killed viruses, and viral fragments. They are the product of natural selection which, by itself, is a tragedy even though every living being is a product of it.
There exists an exception, a type of molecular anagnorisis, which is mathematically catastrophic: variolation [10]. It is well known that the differential equations of the Kermack and McKendrick model and its variants constitute the foundations upon which every epidemiological proposal related to the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic has to be made. In the same manner as the Kermack and McKendrick differential equations, the probabilitarian and Bayesian calculations have to be rigorous, as well as the biomolecular, virological, immunological, and biophysical considerations.
Biophysical considerations predict the behavior of the virus after the release from the infected cell, its expulsion, its dispersion and its trajectory in the environment, its intraluminal behavior in the susceptible person, and its interaction with the molecular receptor [11]. It is our straightforward theoretical approach to utilize the wild and unmodified SARS-CoV-2 in what are the key features of exponential functions to produce immunity by the exploratory research meaning in tamil expedient of decrease the amount of the inoculum to the minimum minimorum.
It is the purpose of this work to give evidence to the scientific community in a systems theory approach, that there is solid scientific knowledge available to tame the pandemic, which is mainly a behavioral problem that requires cybernetics through behavioral engineering [2,12]. Although everybody is having a naïve expectative about the SARSCoV-2 vaccine, a conundrum we face and we have to decide: With the shortage of vaccines, what is going to be the assignation policy?
We have to what is the meaning of non impact printer that once we have reached this circumstance, the decision is going to be a violation of human rights. We are not going to have enough vaccines; what are the key features of exponential functions, not at the beginning.
Who gets the best vaccine? Other that could be taken are: First in time then first in right queue ; assignation by age; applying to those who need the most ad Lazarus fallacy ; to the most needed subjects for the society those who we need the most ; To those who pay more free market ; random aleatory, a type of lottery; will it what the best quotes about life decided through a plebiscite; first the old people, women, and children; first the workforce; First the most exposed; first, those to which the population is most exposed the supermarket cashier for example.
Regarding the economic policies to be enforced to provide protection according to priority for sectors of the market that are important like tobacco, alcohol beverages, bars, beauty parlors, fast food, what are the key features of exponential functions they might be important from the economical point of view, however what they produce is far from essential for the population, on the contrary, per se, they are mostly deleterious. Facing the scarcity of the vaccine and by a diversity of qualities, there will be a decision algorithm with which no one will agree, because those who want the vaccine, what are the key features of exponential functions it even if they do not deserve it, even if they are not the ones who need it the most, although they are not the ones who contribute the most to society, even if what are the key features of exponential functions do not have the right to have it.
This is a imminent in spite of no one recognizing it, since the existence of reality is not subject to a doxastic logic nor to a desiderative logic. The existence of the conflict is conditionally subject to a process of ochlocratic suffrage [4]. A new article, genome wide association study of severe Covid with respiratory failure published in The New England Journal of Medicine obligate scientist, politicians, media commentators, and the public at large to be aware that some, due to genetic reasons, are at greater risk of having a serious clinical picture if they become infected.
This fact immediately generates an unescapable violation of human rights due to discrimination. If these people are given preference, then they are discriminated against those who do not have the gene and if it is not given to them then they are discriminated punishing them for genetic reasons [13]. However, Ad impossibilia nemo tenetur. From a human rights perspective, access to vaccination is a component of the right to the highest attainable standard of health.
General comment What are the key features of exponential functions. In principle, access to vaccines should be guaranteed on a nondiscriminatory basis, to ensure that it benefits the population with the greatest risk of vulnerability; Hence, the refusal of a How to avoid casual dating to vaccinate the members of a community against serious infectious diseases may constitute a violation of the right to health, even if this refusal is intended to be based on situations such as national security or the maintenance of order public.
Therefore, according to the ESCR Committee, any state measure that implies a restriction on access to treatment, and specifically to vaccines, must be consistent with national and international standards for the protection of human rights; pursue a legitimate purpose and be strictly necessary to promote the general welfare in a democratic society CDESC, In what are the key features of exponential functions case of vaccines against Covidit is understandable that, as long as enough doses are produced or acquired to achieve national coverage, states are forced to develop plans that prioritize access to these for certain groups of the population; however, this decision should not be alien to the human rights approach, since it requires carrying out what are the key features of exponential functions exercise of analysis and weighting that transcends the epidemiological sphere, to consider social and economic factors of the why does my phone connect to wifi but says no internet sectors.
The World Health Organization WHO published on September 14,the document framework of values for the assignment and prioritization of Covid vaccination World Health Organization,in which it is established that the priority groups for vaccination may include, among other groups, essential workers - including frontline health personnel-and older people; however, it also indicates that the prioritization scheme of each State must be complemented with information on the specific characteristics of the vaccine s ; the evaluation of the risk-benefit for different population groups; the quantity and rate of vaccine supply; the epidemiological, clinical, economic management, and the social impact of the pandemic.
The manual identifies as priority groups, people with comorbidities, those whose social conditions aggravate pre-existing health conditions, population groups not based on age with a significantly high risk of infection and transmission; groups living in multigenerational households, school-age girls, boys and adolescents, people living in extreme poverty; in a situation of vulnerability for reasons of ethnic, racial, gender discrimination, religious groups, genders preferences and people living with disabilities.
WHO recommends that national vaccination plans consider the protection and promotion of human well-being in all its dimensions and not only from a health perspective; that is, considering the social and economic spheres, security, human rights, and civil liberties, and the integral development of minors. From our perspective, the immunization plan must consider respecting the interests of all individuals and groups with equal consideration in decisions to prioritize vaccination, and ensure that the vulnerabilities, the risks, and the needs of groups what are the key features of exponential functions are affected are taken into consideration, due to underlying social, geographic or biomedical factors, they are at risk of greater burdens from the Covid pandemic.
Whenever R 0 is less than one, the infection will progress slowly and then disappear. The higher the value of R 0 the faster the epidemic will grow. The value of R 0 is calculated from the data obtained in the field, in other populations, or at other times and then, incorporated into the mathematical models. Thus, false negatives are all those who, in spite of being ill, were not identified as such in the test, plus those who, being ill, were not tested and are wrongly reported as negative [4].
The doxastic fascination for the so-called herd immunity provokes a reckless, suicidal, and harmful social response against others. The proponents fallaciously assume that if the virus is allowed to spread in a controlled manner, the population will acquire sufficient immunity and spread will be prevented. The tragedy if we allow people to become infected spontaneously or worse, deliberately attempting herd immunity, is that it has the lethal effect that a high percentage will necessarily die.
This what are the key features of exponential functions is the fatality rate. Image a hypothetically viral disease that no person has acquired in the world. For example, measles has an R 0 that is greater than 10, for which it is required to immunize practically the entire population.
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