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Let it float: new empirical evidence on de facto exchange rate regimes and growth in Latin America. E-mail: cdabus criba. Resumen El trabajo reconsidera la evidencia encontrada por Levy-Yeyati y Sturzenegger LYS sobre la relación entre regímenes cambiarios y crecimiento económico. What is the significance of the open window in the story su clasificación de facto así como su base de datos, a fin de ganar robustez y eficiencia en los resultados.
Aplicamos el método System GMM. A diferencia de LYS, nuestra evidencia meaning of exchange rate system que los regímenes cambiarios no son significativos para explicar el crecimiento económico, tanto para una amplia muestra de países como para Latinoamérica en particular. Abstract This paper reassesses the evidence presented in Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger LYS on the relation between exchange rate regimes and economic is it okay to marry a woman older than you. We use their de facto classification as well as their database, in order to gain robustness and efficiency in the results.
We run System GMM estimations. Additionally, we focus on Latin Meaning of exchange rate system countries for the period Differently to LYS, our evidence indicates that exchange rate regimes are not significant to explain economic growth, both in a worldwide sample of countries and particularly in Latin America. However, in this region flexible regimes appear to have more advantages in terms of the role of the determinants of economic growth in relation to the other exchange regimes.
The relation between exchange rate regimes and economic growth is a relevant and controversial issue in macroeconomics. Nevertheless, and despite a large literature on the subject, it is not clear which regime is more favorable to growth. Empirical evidence shows two main results. First, hard pegs have declined in its relevance; policymakers have made more emphasis on stabilizing the real economy.
In second place, fix flex exchange rate regimes are associated to lower higher inflation and higher lower output variability 1. Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger LYS suggest that the combination of lack of exchange rate adjustments under not casual relationship peg and nominal rigidities result in price distortions and higher output volatility in the event of real shocks.
In turn, in presence of open capital markets an exchange-rate target results in the loss of independent monetary policy, and so in the inability to respond to shocks, which again promotes economic fluctuations. Meaning of exchange rate system the other hand, fix regimes act as a nominal anchor that, by providing credibility to monetary policy ensures long run price stability and predictability both by restraining money growth and by enhancing money demand.
As suggested by Bordo and Schwartzhistorical evidence shows that the convertible regime was one of fixed exchange rates and a stable nominal anchor. Stability, however, came at the expense meaning of exchange rate system great exposure to foreign shocks. In presence of wage and price stickiness, these shocks again could produce volatile output and employment. On the contrary, a flexible exchange rate regime is better suited for insulating the economy against such shocks, so that meaning of exchange rate system fluctuations should be and in fact they are a less serious what is attribute data in statistics. MussaBaxter and StockmanGhosh et al.
According to Bailliu et al. Thus, more flexibility should contribute to lower output variability. In turn, a more flexible exchange rate regime is less likely to generate persistent misalignments in exchange markets, which result in economic crisis. In both cases one might expect lower economic fluctuations. However, empirical evidence shows that more flexible exchange rates are associated to higher inflation 2.
In such cases there is no nominal anchor, so that policymakers can use monetary and fiscal policy tools meaning of exchange rate system avoid negative effects of external or internal shocks on the level of economic activity and employment. In short, the advantages of less more flexible exchange rate arrangements are price in stability, while the costs are higher lower output variability. In turn, a vast literature documents that inflation and economic fluctuations harms economic growth 3.
Therefore, the natural question that arises is whether the benefits of a more flexible system outweigh their costs, so that this can be preferred to a fix one to foster economic growth. This topic has become popular in the literature, particularly since the development of different de facto methodologies for classifying exchange rate regimes. The growing interest in assessing the impact of different exchange rates regimes on economic growth stems mainly from the fact that the empirical research based on the de jure classification the exchange rate regime officially declared by central banks to the IMF shows quite unsatisfactory results, as there is no consensus about whether exchange rates affects key real macroeconomic variables, or if it does, through which channels.
In particular, empirical evidence is not unambiguous about what regime is better to stimulate economic growth. Mundell compares the industrial economies for the previous and subsequent periods to the demise of Bretton Woods, and finds faster economic growth in the former. Mac Donald suggests that fixed exchange rate arrangements within the euro-zone area are likely to stimulate a good economic performance, since this system " Nonetheless, Ghosh et al.
Alternatively, other empirical studies suggest that flexible regimes favors economic growth. Rolnick and Weberusing long-term data for 15 economies, meaning of exchange rate system evidence that output and inflation grow faster under fiat than under commodity standards. In addition, recent empirical evidence suggests that the results differ for industrial and developing countries.
Larrain and Velazco conclude that flexible regimes are recommended for developing countries, because the pressure brought by massive capital flow causal inference in environmental epidemiology old and new approaches and weakened domestic financial systems was too much to bear, even for countries that followed reasonably sound macro policies and had seemingly plentiful reserves.
Indeed, they argue that there exists what some analysts have termed "the law of the excluded middle": there is apparently no intermediate exchange rate regime suitable for emerging markets, as large swings in capital flows would make them vulnerable to speculative currency attacks Eichengreen, ; Fischer, However, by using different de facto classifications, the literature has moved significantly forward in recent years, shedding light into the benefits of intermediate exchange rate regimes in developing countries.
Ghosh et al. Conversely, Calvo and Reinhart focus on a group of countries with regimes classified as flexible under the de jure classification, and find that this economies exhibit what they have called 'fear of floating': in countries with a high degree of financial dollarization, the monetary authority has strong incentives to intervene in the exchange market to reduce exchange rate volatility. Notwithstanding these results, de facto classifications in general tend to favor flexible regimes in developing countries when their impact on growth is assessed.
In this sense, one pioneer and most salient of the empirical works on this issue is LYSwho construct a de facto methodology for classifying exchange rate regimes and show that, for a sample of countries over the post-Bretton Woods periodthere is a positive and strong link between floating regimes and economic growth in non-industrial countries, but this relation is weak for industrial economies. However, their results rely heavily on the econometric method chosen for estimating the relation between exchange rates and growth.
Consequently, and taking into account the developments in the econometric field since LYS work, an interesting question that arises is whether their results hold when using, for instance, Arellano-Bond estimators. The intuition is that more efficient methods that rule out endogeneity could weaken the relationship between growth and exchange rate regimes.
In that sense, the purpose of this paper is twofold. We use their open-access database that has been recently updated to the yearwhile the country dataset is kept the same. A second goal is to focus on Latin American countries. Then we run regressions on each exchange rate regime - as classified by LYS - in order to assess not only the impact on growth, but the differential impact on key determinants of growth. This could lead to interesting results, as the exchange rate might have an indirect effect on economic growth which is not captured when using dummies as regressors in a panel data model.
The next section presents the data and the estimation methodology. In section II we present what is a break in a relationship urban dictionary analyze the regression results, jointly with the usual post-estimation tests. Section III presents the evidence of the relation between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for the particular case of Latin America.
Finally, we present the conclusions. Although the authors have made a great contribution in the development and use of a new exchange rate regimes database, their work presents at least two problems: the first one is a methodological issue. The authors acknowledge that endogeneity may be a problem, and growth may in turn have an impact on the exchange rate regime choice. They attempt to control for endogeneity by using a treatment effects model, which involves a continuous dependent variable - economic growth - determined in part by a binary regressor variable, the exchange rate regime fixed, intermediate or flexible.
Since the dummy might be endogenous, the treatment effects method has two stages. In the first, the dummy is regressed on a set of instruments in a probit and logit regression. In the second, the fitted values from meaning of exchange rate system first model are employed as instruments in the growth equation. Theoretically, this technique controls for the simultaneity of the exchange rate regime. However, Angrist and Krueger find that using a nonlinear first stage to generate fitted values for a second stage regression results in inconsistent estimates if the nonlinear model is not exactly right.
In order to overcome this first issue, we run estimates on both panels annual and averaged observations using System GMM approach developed meaning of exchange rate system Arellano and Bover and Blundell and Bond 4. This estimator combines the first-differenced GMM approach, which uses lagged independent variables meaning of exchange rate system instruments in the levels equations to deal with possible endogeneity issues in the regressors, with the original equations in levels, thus increasing the efficiency of the estimators when the series are persistent.
Therefore, their lagged levels are only weakly correlated with subsequent first-differences Blundell and Bond, Finally, the estimation of growth models using the system-GMM estimator for linear panel data has now become standard in the literature see Beck, In this section we present the empirical evidence on the relation between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for both LYS and our estimations, which were carried out by means of System GMM and by using LYS database.
In Table 1 we report our results jointly with LYS estimations, in order to make comparisons between both studies. Table 1. Growth Regressions Annual Data Standard errors in parentheses. As it can be seen the control variables behave in different ways. There are only two variables that have a similar behavior: real per capita growth is positively correlated with the investment-to-GDP ratio INVGDPeven though in our case we find that this relationship is significant only for industrial countries.
The rate of change of the terms of trade? TT is also positively correlated with growth, and in both LYS all-country estimations and our results the coefficient is significant. However, we do not find differences between industrial and non industrial countries. Contrary to LYS findings, in our estimations initial per capita GDP GDP74computed as the average over the perioddoes not indicate the presence of conditional convergence. In turn, unlikely LYS, our results show that exchange rate regimes are not significant to explain economic growth, both in the total sample and in the case of non industrial countries.
This important difference can be based in the fact that we carry out the regressions by using GMM methodology, which in meaning of exchange rate system is a more robust way to deal with endogeneity that the instrumental variables used by LYS. On the other hand, the lack of significance of almost all the control variables may be related to the use of annual data.
LYS argue that, since exchange rate regimes "change rapidly over time, meaning of exchange rate system classification may be less informative" than using the annual frequency [LYSp. However, this could cause some specifications problems: while the exchange rate index which differentiates fix, float and intermediate regimes is compiled annually, it is not at all usual to have regressions for long-term growth done with annual data.
As the authors recognize, there is a large literature on the short-run effect of exchange rates on economic growth, which is why we are thus inclined to find the results of the five-years average regressions more reliable. In this model, the dependent variable is the average growth rate of per-capita GDP in five-year increments over the period This is computed in base on the classification developed by LYS.
If a country was classified as floating meaning of exchange rate system a given year, the index equals zero. If the currency regime was intermediate, the value is one, and if exchange rates were fixed, the value is two. The average of the index for the five-year periods over the years available from is then taken and used as the regressor for the currency regime. Both LYS and our estimation results, which were carried out with five-year average data, are meaning of exchange rate system in the following table.
Table 2. The interpretation of these results is not straightforward. As it can be seen, the results differ from those obtained when using annual data, and only the ratio of investment seems to be robust to both specifications.