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Abstract: This article analyses whether forced displacement in the Magdalena Department Colombia between was caused not only by the intensity of the armed conflict but also by the growth of the palm agribusiness. We find that a seven percentage point increase in the area used to produce palm per municipality caused an increase of a third of a standard deviation in the rate of forced displacement. These calculations were made on average and after controlling for armed conflict.
We rationalize this finding by the fact that the development of the palm oil agribusiness caused displacement due to its land-intensive technology, increasing international prices combined with government subsidies, and the process was aided by paramilitary activities in the region. Keywords: Forced displacementForced displacement,palm oil agribusinesspalm oil agribusiness,armed conflictarmed conflict,microeconometric panel data modelmicroeconometric panel data model.
Resumen: Este artículo analiza si el desplazamiento forzado en el departamento del Magdalena Colombia entre los años what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence como causa no solo la intensidad del conflicto armado sino también el crecimiento del agronegocio de la palma. Racionalizamos este hallazgo por el hecho de que el desarrollo del agronegocio del aceite de palma provocó desplazamiento debido a su tecnología intensiva en tierra, aumento de precios internacionales combinado con subsidios gubernamentales y que al proceso contribuyeron actividades paramilitares en la región.
Palabras clave: desplazamiento forzado, agronegocio de aceite de palma, conflicto armado, modelo microeconométrico con datos de panel. Palavras-chave: Deslocamento forçado, agronegócio de óleo de palmeira africana, conflito armado, modelo micro econométrico com dados de painel. Le développement du palmier à huile et le déplacement forcé en Colombie : relation causale ou infondée? In this context, a small open economy such as the one in Colombia developed a successful agribusiness industry and turned it into one of the largest producers of palm oil in the hemisphere and the fifth largest in the world Fedepalma, In particular, the Department of Magdalena, located on the Caribbean coast, has been a very productive palm oil region.
It also opened the first biodiesel production plant in Colombia. However, during this decade, the palm oil agribusiness in the department developed in the midst of an ongoing armed conflict. In Colombia, various illegal armed groups communist guerrillas, right wing paramilitary groups and drug traffickers sought political and military control of the disputed territory as well as the illicit drug trade routes OPPDD, ; Reyes, To what extent was the forced displacement in the Department of Magdalena caused not only by the armed conflict but also by the development of the palm oil agribusiness?
This question, amongst others, arises because of the stigma that has hovered over the Colombian palm oil agribusiness since the s. The history of palm oil production in Colombia has coincided with a predominance of right wing paramilitary groups, dispossession of land, and forced displacement. However, it would be inappropriate to stigmatize the entire Colombian palm agribusiness that has existed for more than six decades in the country and operates in of the 1, municipalities in the Colombian territory.
This may give rise to an opposite white legend. The case of ASOPALSAT in Sabana de Torres Department of Santandershowed how, through palm production projects, a community is able to incorporate victims of forced displacement and demobilized members of illegal armed groups into the workforce Rivas, In the municipality of San Martín Cesar for example, peasant families linked to palm production obtained a higher than average income compared to rural workers in the area Villegas, Between andthe Department of Magdalena showed a contrast between two locations of palm plantations.
It is possible that the association between the palm oil agribusiness and forced displacement is spurious and is just a statistical coincidence. The purpose of this article is to establish whether, in the case of the Department of Magdalena during the period, the development of the palm oil industry had a causal effect on forced displacement or not.
For this purpose, we have built a municipality panel data set between and for the Department of Magdalena that allows us to estimate the relationship between palm development and forced displacement, controlling for the effects of armed conflict by using a micro-econometric fixed effect model. We use several estimation techniques for panel data and find strong evidence that palm cultivation in the Department of Magdalena caused a practically significant effect on forced displacement. Specifically, we found that a seven percentage point increase in the area used per municipality to produce palm oil caused an increase of a third of the standard deviation in the rate of forced displacement.
This was the average calculated after controlling for the presence of armed conflict during the period of study. We also find that paramilitary groups seemed to have benefitted from the expansion of the palm agribusiness in the department. The article consists of the following sections: first, a literature review; second, a description of the armed conflict context in Magdalena; third, a characterization of palm oil cultivation; fourth, a conceptual framework; fifth, the micro-econometric model and the estimation methods used; sixth, a description of the panel data that we assembled; seventh, the report and analysis of the results.
Finally, we present our main conclusions. In Colombia, one of the indicators of political violence that is most useful in revealing the intensity of the armed conflict is forced displacement. A person who has been forcibly displaced is understood to be:. Those who have been forced to migrate within the national territory, abandoning their place of residence or habitual economic activities because their lives, physical integrity, safety or personal freedom have been violated or are directly threatened, during any of the following situations: internal armed conflict, internal disturbances and tensions, generalized violence, massive violations of human rights, violations of international humanitarian law or other circumstances originating from prior situations that can dramatically alter or disrupt public order Act of During the last two decades, Colombia has ranked as one of the countries with the largest number of what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence displaced by political violence in the world, alongside countries such as Sudan, Iraq, and recently Syria IDMC, In this sense, it is necessary to review the contribution of political economic theory what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence conflict in order to understand the relationship between resources such as oil palm and forced displacement.
There might be a causal link between the development of oil palm agriculture and the onset and duration of an armed conflict. According to Collier and HoefflerCollierand What is relational algebra in dbms, Hoeffler and Soderbom there is a greater likelihood that a conflict starts where there is high participation in the export of a natural resource as a percentage of the gross domestic product GDP.
However, palm production in Colombia only represents 4. Fearonhowever, unlike Collier, argues that only resources such as petroleum and gems are associated with the risk of the onset of armed conflict. In relation to the duration of an armed conflict, Ross has argued that it is not commodities but illicit resources, such as coca or opium, that can prolong armed confrontation. In principle, the resources mentioned contribute to prolonging conflict because they are to some extent lootable, i.
However, these conditions are not the same for what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence case of oil palm cultivation, which is not a lootable resource because it is not easy to carry, and it is a resource that should i end a casual relationship only profitable if produced in large quantities.
In the case of Colombia, Leiteritz, Nasi and Rettberg conclude that different resources, both illicit and licit, relate to different dynamics of armed mother superior meaning in marathi. In the specific case of palm, Goebertus argues that although it is not possible to establish a causal link between the cultivation of oil palm and forced displacement, there are trajectories and social developments associated with oil palm that have manifested as political violence in the Zona Bananera municipality Magdalena.
Among other factors, Goebertus mentions that the involvement of illegal armed groups when there is a weak government presence and incentives for planting palm oil provided by the government has what is meant by causal systems forced displacement. In relation to other studies about resources and conflict, Ferguson, Romero and Vargas used satellite deforestation data and fixed effects municipal models and concluded that in the period the paramilitary presence resulted in high levels of deforestation as well as the influx of a large number of people to secure territories to plant illicit crops, exploit mineral resources, and extend agriculture.
In Colombia, some quantitative studies have sought to explain the relationship between oil palm and armed confrontation. While the literature mentioned contributes to understanding the dynamics of armed conflict and its relationship with natural resources, it does not explain the relationship between natural resources and forced displacement.
Using spatial econometric techniques, Rey argues that there is a direct geographical connection between palm agriculture define functional dependency in maths forced displacement across Colombian municipalities that are considered to be new palm producers from onwards. Rey identifies a spatial coincidence between these two variables but clarifies that it does not establish whether this relationship is actually causal.
Palacioson the other hand, attempts to establish the relationship between the cultivation of oil palm and forced displacement in an illegal crop substitution and weak government presence context. However, this study does not analyse the existence of other legal resources in these areas that may or may not explain forced displacement. The literature does not reveal a causal link between the development of palm farming and forced displacement.
However, given the particularities of oil palm cultivation and its development within the context of the armed conflict in the Department of Magdalena, a causal link might emerge. Colombia has suffered a prolonged armed conflict for more than five decades. It started in the s when left-wing guerrilla organizations challenged military and political control of the State. In the s, for example, there was a rise of drug gangs and vigilante or self-defence groups, the latter created mostly by cattle ranchers and banana growers.
The purpose of self-defence groups was to eliminate subversive organizations due to the fact that the State had not been what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence to do so. In the s, self-defence groups had turned into paramilitary groups. Although their purpose was the same as the self-defence groups, they were different in two aspects: their main source of funding came from drug trafficking Adams,and their military strategy was the use of terror.
Undoubtedly, the paramilitary groups, what is the definition of skew symmetric matrix particular the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia AUCwere able to seriously combat the guerrilla organizations in different areas of the country; however, they also victimized thousands of civilians see reports in the Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica, The Department of Magdalena, located in a strategic area rich in natural resources, has been the scene of armed conflict for several decades.
In the early s, the so-called Northern Block of the AUC managed to counteract guerrilla presence in the region and take control not only of the territory but also the territoriality, understood as the space in which political, economic, and social relationships as well as power are formed and disputed Sacks, The demobilization of paramilitary structures left a power vacuum in the region that led to the emergence of different illegal groups that took control of drug trafficking and business extortion rackets demanding protection money fees from businesses.
In short, the Department of Magdalena has been an area of contention due to the various illegal armed groups that have sought to dominate the country politically and militarily and also control the illicit drug trade routes OPPDD, ; Reyes, For the mafia and the paramilitary groups, the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta 10 represents a drug cultivation area with an exit route via the sea and for the FARC-EP, a hiding place for their kidnapped victims and a strategic rearguard in the Caribbean Block.
In a complex political scenario such as the one in the Department of Magdalena, the development of the palm oil agribusiness seemed to become a political and economic alternative, at least for some sectors of the current government and multilateral agencies. Oil palm is a late high-yielding crop that requires about thirty months for the first harvest, and only during its sixth year is it able to produce higher income than expenses Ocampo, It is not labour intensive; while banana requires 0.
However, once it starts to produce, it produces throughout the year and each commercially processed palm what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence last up to 25 years. This particular palm crop allows peasant families to build longer-term life projects definition of evolutionary tree, in this way, form part of a population that can generate some roots.
During the period under review in this study, the Uribe administration strongly supported palm cultivation through state subsidies as in the case of the Rural Capitalization Incentive and Agro Ingreso Seguro. Moreover, there are land intensive technologies for oil palm cultivation and, the concept of scarcity choice and opportunity cost order to lower costs and to be competitive, it requires economies of scale of at least a 5, hectares of crops Ocampo, Besides the initial investment required, it is essential to install extraction plants that are not diversifiable.
The plant transforms the palm fruit into oil that is subsequently what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence in domestic and international markets. Moreover, once harvested, the fruit of the palm must be quickly processed; otherwise, it acidifies and can no longer be used for oil. It is for this reason that extraction plants are considered production centres and are key for the production.
In Colombia there are 56 plants, eight of which operate in the Department of Magdalena Fedepalma, The reduced costs of this agribusiness attracted the presence of illegal armed actors. During the s and s, the guerrilla organizations became untraceable entrepreneurs of extortion and kidnappings. However, in the paramilitary groups AUC imposed their political and military power in flat areas where palm and banana plantations existed and cattle grazed.
This generated employment for demobilized and displaced persons. However, in the light of a case such as the Department of Magdalena, these benefits could have converted into a black legend : a term used in Colombia, based on anecdotal evidence and victim testimony, to describe the dispossession of land, forced displacement, and political violence on a mass scale. In this section, we propose two mechanisms that relate palm development and forced displacement. There exists the possibility of a causal mechanism in which palm production generates forced displacement due to an increase in the demand for land that was stimulated by the significant rise in the international prices of palm oil in world markets during the period and in combination with government subsidies.
This situation could have resulted in explicit alliances, where entrepreneurs, in association with illegal armed groups, sought to seize land at low cost. Map 1. Rubiano, Universidad del Valle, taken from the database created by the authors. There could have even been even implicit alliances, where although the palm cultivators did not seek to displace peasants or seize their land directly, they nonetheless benefitted by having access to cheap land that had been abandoned as a result of paramilitary violence.
There is also the possibility of a non-causal mechanism that relates forced define read into with palm oil development that is linked with the intensity of the armed conflict. That is, the dispute between paramilitary groups and guerrilla organizations for the control of territory coincides with land type that is appropriate for palm oil cultivation.
In this situation, the how to study optional for upsc population caught in the crossfire are doomed to migrate and end up being victims of forced displacement. Although a positive relationship between increased palm activity and forced displacement was observed, it what is the difference between correlation causation and coincidence be spurious.
In reality, the correlation would follow a geographical overlap between territorial disputes by illegal armed groups and the development of palm oil agribusinesses. To test this hypothesis, we consider the following fixed effects model. Consider the following linear fixed effect unobserved population model on a municipal level for the Department of Magdalena in the study period:. According to the two mechanisms described in the conceptual framework, we have the following scenarios:.
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