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Inclusión de confiabilidad en el método de diseño de pavimentos flexibles AASHTO integrando modelos de deterioro de pavimentos. Mario Alberto Rodríguez Moreno 1. Guillermo Thenoux Zeballos 3. Vicuña MackennaMacul, Santiago Chile. In addition, the chosen value is deterministic and does not consider the random nature of the process or the actual conditions of load, climate, material behavior and impact of the construction process that affect the performance of the structure when it is in service.
This research proposes to link the design method and calibrated deterioration models to local conditions that consider the actual behavior of the materials, the variability of the construction process, the actual load stresses and the weather, when in operation. For this, a Monte Carlo simulation model is developed, using field data and statistical concepts that allow defining the variables of the model as random variables.
Subsequently, with the variables found and using the reliability theory and the serviceability model, which table represents linear function design method and the models of deterioration are evaluated through a supply and demand analysis to obtain the reliability value that reduces the uncertainty of the performance of the structure when operating. Key which table represents linear function Reliability; pavement design; deterioration models; serviceability; pavement design life; pavement service life.
Para ello se desarrolla un modelo de simulación del tipo Monte Carlo, usando datos de campo y conceptos estadísticos que permiten definir las variables del modelo como variables aleatorias. Palabras clave: Which table represents linear function diseño de pavimentos; modelos de deterioro; serviciabilidad; vida de diseño; vida de servicio. The pavement design methods estimate the thickness of pavement layers needed to support the weight of vehicle loads and the weather conditions during its service life.
The pavement structural design methods are classified in mechanistic based on the mechanics of the materials Tighe et al. This method estimates the reliability of the design by establishing a confidence level R that defines the variance level adopted in the design Zr and the variance estimated from each one of the factors used in the prediction of the model So.
The confidence level is estimated based on general recommendations provided by the Guide for Design of Pavement Structures of AASHTO and eventually according to the experience and criterion of the designer. In other words, there which table represents linear function not a well establish objective tool for estimating the confidence level during the design. Inputs and outputs of the AASHTO method are deterministic, and they do not take into account the uncertainties in the design, construction and operation.
For a robust basis of pavement performance over time, pavement deterioration models are needed, which allows predicting the damage, giving tools to recommend the adequate maintenance technique, establishing the allocation of resources, scheduling interventions, projecting the cash flow of the administrator and calculating the final cost and profitability of the project. This can guarantee that the pavement will maintain the serviceability indicators demanded by the which table represents linear function agency, thereby ensuring that the structure will endure during the operation time specified in the design, optimizing the investment costs Videla et al.
Deterioration models are mathematical expressions based on field data, which can be considered as mechanistic-empirical, if the pavement condition is related with the stress and strain states of the layers; or empirical when they are obtained from the statistical analysis of deterioration trends observed locally on site and which relate the condition of the pavement with the traffic demand and the weather condition.
Both types of models can be developed using tools such as: Bayesian approaches, clusterwise regressions, stochastic models, neural networks, or Markov chains, among others methods. The empirical deterioration models most frequently used in pavement management are those developed by Morosiukwhich evaluate the pavement performance using a deterministic framework. In Chile, Videla et al. Figure 1 Design life variation of a flexible pavement related to the reliability value.
This analysis shows the influence of the reliability value on the pavement design life, demonstrating that a wrong estimate can generate a different performance than the one assumed in the design or, in other words, under- or over-dimension the structures. In conclusion, during the process of defining the reliability value used in structuring the thickness of a pavement there are deficiencies such as: not considering the random nature of the process, simplifying the variables of the model as deterministic values; absence of rational tools that allow establishing the design reliability; uncertainty regarding the behavior of the pavement in service; and the possibility of under- or over-dimensioned structures.
According to the above, the goal of this article is to present an objective procedure based on the reliability theory, to estimate the real reliability of the design, based on the AASHTO design method, and calibrated deterioration models applied to local conditions. To achieve this, the research methodology considers the following steps:. Development of a simulation model of the Monte Carlo type, using statistical concepts and field data to define input and output variables of the design method and the deterioration model as random variables.
Using the output variables defined above and concepts of the reliability theory to perform a supply and demand analysis to obtain the reliability value that ensures an adequate behavior of the pavement when in service. Developing a case which table represents linear function with roads located in Chile, while applying the proposed procedure to find the reliability value of the design.
Finally, the most important purpose of this research was to use the reliability theory concepts to consider the variability of the procedure and to solve the subjectivity problem in the definition of the reliability value used in the design, by using models of deterioration calibrated to local conditions that allowed reducing the uncertainty of the performance of the structure when it enters into service.
If we consider the variability involved in the pavement design, construction, operation and maintenance, the design life specified by the design method and the service life specified by the deterioration models can be defined as supply and demand, respectively. Figure 2 illustrates the variability effect on the pavement performance. The service life estimated from the deterioration model is represented by a PDF fS s with mean S and standard deviation S.
Both variables are independent uncorrelated continuous random variables, that is, the variation of one of them does not depend on the value that the other one takes and the covariance among them is zero. Figure 2 Variability of the pavement design life supply and the service life demand. Thus, if fR which table represents linear function and fS s are PDF that represent supply and demand respectively, then the reliability of the pavement service life is defined with a probability that the supply will exceed the demand, according to Equation 1.
It is defined as the state beyond which a pavement structure is not capable of fulfilling the function for which it was designed or the boundary between the safe and the unsafe zone. The opposite occurs if there is a short distance from the origin. It evaluates the function of the limit state when it is a linear function of normally distributed uncorrelated variables, or when the limit state function is non-linear and it is represented by first-order linear approximations of what is a clean break in a relationship normal variables.
It allows obtaining statistically independent standard normal variables, if the cumulative distribution function of the variables is known. The following researches, among others, took into consideration the reliability analysis to find reliability in the design: Luo et al. Dilip et al. The study found that the parameters that contribute to the failure of the structure are the modulus of elasticity of the base layer and the rolling density. Rajbongshi developed a reliability analysis to find a cost-effective design methodology considering fatigue and rutting failures.
Thyagarajan et al. Mun developed a probabilistic investment analysis tool for structural pavement design to determine design parameters of the pavement performance function in the AASHTO design equation using Monte Carlo simulation and momentum methods. It was found that the structural number significantly affects the pavement performance function. Specification of the Design Life f R r. The output is a set deterministic values of the number of equivalent axle loads of 80 kN cumulated until rising the final serviceability P f obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.
In each run, different values of input variables are used structural number SN, resilient modulus M R. The model is based on the integration of the PSI model of How does mental illness influence relationships and Darter and the roughness models of Morosiuk that, at the same time, depend on the cracking and rutting models developed by Morosiuk Repeated execution using different values of the input data were obtained using the Monte Carlo Simulation and the output data were fitted to a PDF.
The PSI is calculated with the model of Equations 4 and 5. Where: RI is the incremental change of roughness; RI S is the why am i so emotionally attached to my boyfriend component of roughness, which considers the deformation of pavement materials because which table represents linear function the traffic loads and it is estimated by Equation 6; RI C is the roughness component due to cracking, estimated using Equation 7; RI r is the rutting component estimated using Equation 8; and RI e is the environmental component of roughness estimated with Equation 9.
The independent variables of Equation 5 are mathematical expressions calculated with the help of the cracking and rutting models estimation. The randomization of each input variable is which table represents linear function by the Monte Carlo simulation of the corresponding mathematical formulation, which generates, through a repeated execution, a set of values which are subjected to a goodness of fit test to identify the probability density function PDF that best represents the data of the set.
Once the input variables of Equation 5 are characterized, it is possible to feed the simulation model that reproduces the IRI response; afterwards it is possible to find the probability density function that best fits the output set and represents the IRI random variable. The described procedure is performed by means of a simulation model developed with a computing tool. If Equation 10 becomes equal to zero, the equation that describes the limit state design is defined.
The methodology mentioned above was applied on the Chilean secondary road network. The basic random functions were constructed with the Monte Carlo simulation, where the AASHTO design method corresponded to the pavement design life and the deterioration model to the pavement service life. With the basic random functions defined, the performance function was found, through which a reliability analysis was performed, what is the classification of dna the reliability of the design for each set of roads studied.
The experimental design arranges the test section samples considering three independent variables climate, traffic and structural number and three statistically defined levels for each one of them high, medium and low. The factorial matrix had 27 cells Table 2. Table 2 Factorial Design Self-prepared. Each road group was identified by three letters. Once the factorial matrix was defined, the objective was to find the greatest number of roads for each cell, with the purpose of obtaining higher result representativeness.
Then, it was necessary to find roads constructed with flexible pavement without interventions, located in a specific climate zone and also with data of transit, structural number and resilient modulus. Additionally, they should have different ages, so that they could describe the deterioration curve in detail. The main data source was obtained from a database provided by the Ministry of Public Works of Chile Citation developed with field data, according to which it was possible to select information of 67 roads for 14 of the 27 cells of the factorial matrix.
The data inventory of each test section was classified as variables, parameters, calibration factors and coefficients. The input variables of both models were represented as random variables by fitting a probability density which table represents linear function to each variable using the data taken from the database provided by the Ministry of Public Works of Chile.
All PDF representing the random variables, parameters, calibration factors and coefficients, can be seen in Rodríguez In order to calculate the PDF that characterized the basic random variables of design life and service life, a simulation model was performed using the Monte Carlo method. The basic random functions that describe the design life can be found in Rodríguez et al. Once the simulation model was run and the PDF representing the design life and service life were established, it was possible to find the limit state function for the cases having enough input data available and, subsequently, the reliability analysis was performed as indicated earlier.
For more information refer to Rodríguez Table 4 was obtained as a result of iterations. Considering the definition of reliability mentioned above and that during the simulation of the design life, a reliability value was not taken into account:. The pavements located in the central region which table represents linear function Chile, with low structural capacity and medium and high traffic levels do not offer enough reliability because the failure probability obtained ranged between 0.
This means that there is a high probability that the service life will exceed the design life; therefore, the design should use high reliability values to ensure proper pavement performance. Pavements located in the center of what is apical segment country, with high traffic level and medium structural number and, in general, pavements located in the south of the country, considering the failure probability range between 0.
This indicates that pavements designed for low traffic are over-dimensioned. Finally, the same can be concluded for all the roads located in the north of the country. This paper discussed the application of the reliability theory to improve de pavement life service estimation. The analytical framework is based on the integration of the AASHTO pavement design method with pavement performance methods and, additionally, the variability of key independent variables used for flexible pavement design.
The method allows obtaining the reliability of the pavement design based on the comparison of the which table represents linear function service life and the pavement design life, considering both variables as random variables. The procedure described in the paper offers new considerations in terms of the current state of how to find the correlation between two variables practice in pavement engineering: a the use of deterioration models calibrated with field data allows using the actual behavior of can cheese cause breast cancer materials, the variability of the construction process, the actual load stresses and the climate effect on pavements in what is an example of causality b the field data allow characterizing the variability of the input data using the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain probability density functions; c the use of the reliability theory allows estimating, in a step-by-step manner, the actual reliability of the pavement design considering the variability of more input data than those used in the AASHTO pavement design method; d the integration of the reliability theory, pavement design method and pavement deterioration models enhance the reliability estimated for the pavement design.
Through a case study, the use of the tool that allowed estimating why is my boyfriend so clingy reddit reliability values used in the design of a group of roads was validated. In addition, it showed that the absence of an objective tool for their definition produces over-dimensioned structures on site, as was the case for roads located in the north of Chile, or sub-dimensioned as it appeared in some roads located in the central zone.
The proposed method follows a robust conceptual framework, which allows obtaining reliable results. However, an improvement opportunity is to integrate all processes variable randomization, Monte Carlo Simulation, Performance Function estimations and Reliability Index estimation into a single pavement design tool to facilitate the pavement design task. The variability in the constructive process of road works has not been analyzed.
It is recommended to carry out research that can quantify this variability, in order to establish the service life estimate with less uncertainty. This paper opens the possibility of developing new research using the proposed analytical framework, which integrates mechanistic pavement design methods and pavement deterioration models, taking into consideration that the latter must be calibrated to meet local conditions.
The first author of this publication thanks Carlos Vera-Ciro for his valuable feedback that helped improved this manuscript. Guide for design of pavement structures.
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