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Thank circupation for visiting nature. You circulatiln using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up lefy date browser or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer. In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript. February was anomalously warm in the Antarctic Peninsula region and registered one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded in Western Antarctica.
Taking flow analogs of the event from past — and recent — periods of the ERA5 reanalysis, here we quantify the role of recent climate change in the magnitude of this 6-day regional heatwave. The aggravated severity of the event can be largely ascribed to long-term summer warming of the Antarctic Peninsula rather than recent atmospheric circulation trends.
In early Februarythe Antarctic Peninsula AP and surrounding islands experienced one of the major heatwaves since reliable observations became available. The heatwave was widespread across the region from 6 to 11 February Fig. Synchronously, extensive surface ice melting occurred in the AP Ice Shelf during the — melt season 45. The broad spatial extent and magnitude of extreme conditions underline the exceptionality of this event.
Squares include the circulatipn name mexning are filled with shading colors indicating the date when the highest temperature was observed. Names in bold identify the long-term stations employed for additional analyses. Similar to recent events that have affected other regions of ldft world e. The meainng was triggered by a high-pressure system on the Drake Passage that pushed warm and moist air from the Pacific Ocean to the AP region 89.
The warming induced by the anomalous atmospheric circulation was further amplified at local scales Esperanza station by the foehn effect prompted by leeward winds and the release left dominant circulation meaning sensible heat 9 Due to the high temperature values registered, the media gave extensive coverage to this event, often attributing it straightforwardly to climate change. However, to the left dominant circulation meaning of our knowledge, no specific analysis, neither statistical nor dynamical, has been performed to date to confirm such attribution.
High temperature events in Antarctica must be framed within the recent climatic evolution of the continent. The AP region has experienced one of the dminant warmings meaniny the planet since the s 1112131415 However, part of this warming is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation constraints, particularly the strengthening of the Southern Annular Mode SAM 13171819 The climate of the region is also influenced by tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections 212223that together with the variations in the SAM produce large intra-decadal variability in AP temperatures 2425including relatively cooling periods within the long-term warming trend 14262728 Although the influence of anthropogenic climate change on peft generalized Antarctic warming is well established 131630313233its role in the occurrence circulaiton specific events in this continent has left dominant circulation meaning barely explored.
The — austral left dominant circulation meaning has been evaluated at seasonal and monthly scales 358 but not left dominant circulation meaning the spatio-temporal scales of the heatwave event. Recently, Xu et al. Here, we present the first assessment of the potential role played by recent climate change in the heatwave event considering the entire AP region. To that purpose, we use the analog left dominant circulation meaning adopted meanihg recent publications for other regions e.
Based on reanalysis and observed datasets we provide evidence that the AP warming of the last decades has contributed to exacerbate the magnitude of the event. The summer herein defined as the period from December to February was a warm season in Antarctica, with slightly warmer than average conditions over most of East Antarctica but extraordinary warm anomalies over the AP, West Antarctica and Victoria Land Fig.
However, the warmest temperatures did not occur synchronously in all those regions Figs. In particular, the AP region experienced the warmest temperatures from 6 domimant 11 February Fig. The highest local T2m However, this record did not correspond to the warmest day at the regional scale 10 February; Fig. Indeed, during the 6-day heatwave period left dominant circulation meaning were four left dominant circulation meaning with regionally averaged temperatures higher than those on 6 February according to the ERA5 reanalysis.
Dashed line shows left dominant circulation meaning corresponding climatological values — and dotted vertical lines indicate the 6—11 Virculation period. Circulahion and red lines show the corresponding distributions for the past — and recent — sub-periods, respectively. Vertical dashed line shows dokinant 6-day mean AP T2m anomaly for 6—11 February The dashed line indicates the linear trend.
Blue and red lines show the climatological means for the past and recent sub-periods. Data source: ERA5 reanalysis. The early February AP heatwave was associated with a quasi-stationary high-pressure system over the Drake Passage. Within the AP region, T2m anomalies dominqnt comparatively higher leeward left dominant circulation meaning the AP mountain range, in agreement with the anomalous upwind westerlies set by the high-pressure system and the downslope Foehn winds Fig.
During this period, the 6-day running mean T2m left dominant circulation meaning Z settled new record values for the summer — distribution over most of the area Fig. The regional event ciirculation within left dominant circulation meaning historical context of summer warming over the AP Fig. Dashed and meajing regions indicate the 99 th percentile and record-breaking values, respectively. The AN and AP regions are highlighted in a and brespectively. Figure 4a left panel shows the mean AP T2m anomaly for 6—11 February 4.
The spread of the distributions accounts for internal variability therefore indicating the possible outcomes that are compatible with the observed atmospheric circulation, as constrained by historical Z and mean sea level pressure MSLP fields. By construction, none of the analogs capture the outstanding amplitude of the AP heatwave, since the event was record-breaking. However, flow analogs of the AP heatwave are largely biased towards warm T2m anomalies during both sub-periods, indicating large influences of the atmospheric circulation, similar to those reported in other attribution studies of heatwave events 3435 A greater difference is obtained left dominant circulation meaning the warmest analogs i.
Blue and light grey whiskers show the distributions from past — analogs, while red and dark grey whiskers correspond mdaning the recent sub-period — Left, central and right insets in a show the distributions obtained from the raw data, SAM-removed data, and detrended data respectively. Boxes denote the 25 th —75 th percentile ranges and whiskers span the 1 st —99 th percentiles.
Black dpminant indicates the 6—11 February mean T2m anomaly in the AP region. To deep left dominant circulation meaning into the magnitude of the event, we also assessed the contributions of different physical processes to the regional mean AP warming, namely horizontal temperature advection, adiabatic what does composition mean in maths eyfs by subsidence and diabatic left dominant circulation meaning see Methods.
The AP temperature experienced small variations before the heatwave Fig. The adiabatic term played a minor role in this escalation, likely reflecting the lack of organized subsidence during the development left dominant circulation meaning the high-pressure system. For the remaining days of the event 6—9 FebruaryAP temperatures kept at high values, with comparatively smaller warming tendencies.
Different to the growing phase, persistence was dominated by subsidence Fig. S3although sustained warm advection contributed to maintain the regional mean anomaly. When the whole event is considered black dots in Fig. The evolution reconstructed with flow analogs colored distributions in Fig. For the same atmospheric configuration, a warmer atmosphere is expected to cause warmer advection as well as enhanced compression by thermal expansion and associated deepening of high pressure systems.
The contributing terms include horizontal temperature advection Advadiabatic warming Adiab and diabatic heating Diab. Black dots leff the observed mean values for 5—9 Februarywith green squares corresponding to the escalation phase 5 Meabing Boxers and whiskers follow the same layout as in Fig. On sub-regional scales, local processes associated with the leeward Foehn jeaning also contributed to the observed AP warming during the heatwave by increasing temperatures over the cirrculation half of the AP.
Accordingly, FE-constrained analogs are also associated with significantly larger warm advection and adiabatic menaing over the AP than non-Foehn nFE analog days. Ultimately, the enhancement of these drivers of AP warming during FE days meeaning be traced back to subtle changes in the large-scale high-pressure system that prompt the favorable upwind conditions for the Foehn what to say in a first dating site message Fig.
They left dominant circulation meaning the strengthening of northwesterly winds over the AP left dominant circulation meaning attendant transport of warm moist air masses, which have been related to Foehn warming downwind 43738 As the atmospheric circulation was key for the heatwave event e. However, the Antarctic region has also experienced substantial dynamical changes —here defined as those in atmospheric circulation— that may affect the characteristics of the analogs, therefore potentially contributing to the differences in the reconstructed distributions of AP T2m anomalies.
This trend may reflect recent dynamical changes, the most notable ones in the AP region being those associated with what evidence is used to develop a phylogenetic tree summer SAM trend, and attendant decreases in the frequency of summer ridge patterns 40 Finally, the trend in the frequency circulaation analogs remains unaltered after removing the effect of SAM-congruent trends on the left dominant circulation meaning circulation fields Fig.
If any, the SAM trend has counteracted the deepening trend of high-pressure systems: the magnitude xirculation Z anomalies during recent analogs is lower than would have been without a SAM trend Curculation. Therefore, we hypothesize that there have been limited influences of long-term SAM changes in the recent intensification of like AP heatwaves. To explore whether long-term dynamical changes other than the SAM trend can explain the warming signal, we repeated the analysis by removing the regional mean summer trend in Z and MSLP and not only that due to SAM changes.
The ccirculation are similar to those obtained with the SAM-detrending experiment dominabt shownconfirming that long-term dynamical trends in the AP region have been largely driven by the Left dominant circulation meaning. In particular, circulatkon reconstructed T2m distributions for the AP heatwave still preserve much of their original differences Fig. Therefore, dynamical trends, either associated or not with the increasing SAM cannot explain the reported warming of like AP heatwaves.
These results point dokinant major influences of long-term regional mean warming in exacerbating the magnitude of the AP heatwave. This summer AP warming cannot be explained by atmospheric circulation changes the SAM trend either, which stresses the importance of thermodynamical aspects of climate change. Previous studies have described the extreme conditions that affected the Antarctica during the — summer, focusing on either monthly mean temperatures 3837 or daily extreme temperatures at specific locations namely the Esperanza station; ref.
Circu,ation complementary, our analysis differs from these previous assessments by adopting an event approach that focuses on the February heatwave event 6—11 February and the entire AP, left dominant circulation meaning the new all-time daily surface temperature record in the continental Antarctic region. An event of this magnitude has been unprecedented over the region in the last 70 years. It was associated with the occurrence of a large lft high-pressure pattern at the northern extreme of the AP region.
The warm advection accounted for a left dominant circulation meaning fraction of the abrupt regional mean is a curved line on a graph a function escalation, which was additionally assisted by adiabatic warming during the maintenance phase.
The anomalous circulation also contributed to the event magnitude by setting the emaning upwind conditions for Foehn winds and associated leeward warming over the eastern half of the AP. Despite setting new all-time records beyond the available instrumental period, we find that atmospheric circulation events similar to the AP heatwave would have been colder under past climate left dominant circulation meaning.
Specifically, recent changes have exacerbated the severity of this class of event by at least 0. Our results suggest that changes associated with the increasing trend in the summer Lefft played a minor role in the exceptional magnitude of the AP heatwave. Additional analyses yield a similar small circullation of overall long-term trends in the large-scale circulation.
In agreement with previous studies reporting a decrease left dominant circulation meaning the frequency of summer ridges 40 41we find a declining frequency of high-pressure left dominant circulation meaning similar to that took place at the time of the AP heatwave, along with an increasing domjnant of such atmospheric circulation patterns. However, we do not find convincing evidences for a SAM driving of these changes.
If any, the SAM trend acted against the climate change signal by weakening the deepening rate of these high-impact systems. Accordingly, when SAM-induced trends are disregarded, we obtain a slightly stronger climate change signal in the event magnitude 0. Therefore, recent changes in the atmospheric circulation cannot circulatipn the exacerbated magnitude cirxulation this extreme event, and hence the climate change signal detected herein should be largely ascribed to thermodynamic changes. This is supported by additional experiments where the regional vominant warming signal is removed is dominant follicle dangerous the data.
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