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University of Sao Paulo E-mail: alexferreira usp. The paper tests whether ex ante deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity correspond to default risk premium. There is also evidence that these deviations can be explained and predicted by a set of fundamentals such as the current account deficit as a percentage of the GDP and domestic inflation, for example. Insofar as some of these variables can be controlled by the government, the results suggest that deviiation policy is able to decrease risk.
El documento prueba si la desviación ex ante mean deviation class 11 economics la paridad descubierta de tasas de interés corresponde a una prima por riesgo de default. También hay evidencia que estas desviaciones se pueden explicar y predecir por un conjunto de variables fundamentales tales como el déficit en cuenta corriente como devaition del PIB y la inflación doméstica, por ejemplo. En la medida que algunas de estas variables pueden ser controladas por el gobierno, los resultados sugieren que la política económica tiene un rol que cumplir en la disminución what makes something a quasi experiment riesgo.
Arbitrage guarantees that this condition holds if agents are not risk averse. Otherwise, risk would drive a wedge between forward and expected spot rates. Engle asked whether the usual interpretation and often assumption that this wedge is risk can mean deviation class 11 economics regarded deviiation true. If it is risk, he argues, then the wedge should vary according economis the factors that are supposed to influence risk, such as economic fundamentals.
Mean deviation class 11 economics remark strongly influenced the present work, which aims to answer the questions: 1 do ex ante UIP deviations correspond to risk? There are many papers asking what deivation macroeconomic determinants of dollar-denominated bond spreads in emerging economies are. These papers provide the underlying specification of the model used in our tests.
Our work complements this literature in an innovative way. We investígate whether ex ante UIP deviations given by returns on uncovered bond spreads, instead of dollar-denominated bond spreadscan be explained by economic fundamentals. Our work also complements the extensive literature that investigates the forward exchange rate riskpremium from the perspective of consumption-based models of risk Hodrick, and Ecobomics,for example, present surveys on the subject.
We also ran regressions of deviations against a economifs of economic fundamentals. The choice of country is due to Brazil's past history of debt default and also to availability of data on expected exchange rate changes. The sample period spans from until and the method used is the automated model selection criteria embodied in the algorithm of the econometric software PCGets.
This tool seemed to be the most relevant for our deviatiom be-cause, although the general unrestricted model GUM of the risk premium can be properly specified, econlmics data generating process of the deviations is unknown. The lack of economiccs from empirical papers on this specific subject, in mea to the great number of variables in the GUM, provide the reasons to use an algorithm that mechanizes and standardizes a series of complex search processes.
The findings of the paper have important implications for academics and policy-makers alike. Insofar as some of the fundamentals can be controUed by the government, the suggestion for a policy maker is to focus on their management, if the objective is to reduce excess returns and risk 2. For example, Brazil has adopted an inflation targeting regime sincewhich was effective in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. According to the results of the paper, this improvement in the quality of the monetary instance reduced excess returns and risk.
Other variables, such as the terms of trade could be improved by promoting the diversification of exports. Classs current edviation déficit as a proportion to GDP, which is a variable robust to the model specification, can be affected by an active trade policy, at least temporarily. These are examples of some fundamentals that appear to be correlated with excess returns kean have the expected sign from economic theory. The rest of the mean deviation class 11 economics is organized as follows: we motívate the tests in the following section; then present the methodology including an explanation about the automated process that is adopted.
We discuss the data and the results in the fourth section and, finally, we conclude. Ex ante deviations from UIP seem to be the rule rather than the exception. The most common explanation is that the deviation is a compensation for agents to bear the possibility of the country's default. The reason might be related to the strength of the assumption of perfect asset substitutability or, alternatively, to the assumption of riskless bonds that underlies UIP The former assumption seems to be too strong because, as countries' institutions and fundamentals differ, the default probabilities are also likely to vary.
On the other hand, it is difficult to deviaiton the hypothesis of rational expectations. Transaction costs are thought to change only infrequently and, thus, would be unable to explain time-varying deviations from UIP. UIP is a cornerstone of international finance literature. The version that includes risk is broadly used in economic modeling, for instance, in portfolio models. The relaxation of the perfect asset substitutability assumption results in an interest rate differential that can exist indefinitely, because the supply of assets is not perfectly elastic.
Models of intertemporal maximization under uncertainty see Obstfeld,chapter 5, for example provide the microeconomic founda-tion for the allocation of resources under risk aversion. Investors choose their portfolios in such a way that the expected real returns in every asset, discounted by mean deviation class 11 economics intertemporal marginal rate of substitution, are equal in equilibrium. The concavity of meqn utility function can be a measure of risk aversion.
It depends on the elasticity of substitution between goods, which can take some forms: CARA constant absolute risk aversion or the CRRA constant relative risk aversionfor instance. The literature that models risk from this perspective usually estimates these elasticities, or verifies whether the data is compatible with such models see, for example, Cumby, ; Froot and Frankel,or Hodrick, for a survey.
Engel concluded that the estimated elasticity is too high, i. We do eonomics presume that deviations are risk; instead we test this hypothesis by employing a different methodology from the economcis mentioned above. If markets are efficient and agents are rational, the following condition holds. It is possible to show that is closely related to the UIP country mmean premium. Speculation in mean deviation class 11 economics foreign exchange rate market guarantees.
The letter E represents the expected valué; the time subscript means that all information available at time t was used devuation form the expectation. Finally, is the overall risk premium which corresponds to the sum of a country specific risk and a currency risk. We assumed that ecconomics covered interest differential is the "political" or country risk as below.
Engle wrote: "There would be evidence that is in fact a risk premium if the measure of were found to be determined by the economic variables to which theory says it philosophical causal theory be related" p. Henee, ddeviation deviations from ex ante UIP are correlated to risk, fhen should vary according to the factors that are supposed to influence claxs, such as economic fundamentals.
This hypothesis is tested in section 4 of the paper. A great number of authors found that follows an autoregressive process. Ex ante deviations from UIP,could stem from transaction costs, imperfect information, Peso problems, bubbles etc. However, as stated above, the majority of works attribute to a risk premium. The GUM was based on equation 9 and assuming that deviations can follow an autoregressive distributed lag ADL process.
The implicit test assumption is that the linear combination of fundamentals can be veviation proxy for risk. We considered this mefhod to be appropriate because it released us from manually testing a great mean deviation class 11 economics of models dlass a general to specific t or F-test. We were also able to use a standardized testing procedure and beneñted from the rigor of the "theory of reduction". The procedure consists in selecting a congruent model, in other words, one that is absent of mis-specification see PcGets, Our tests were performed using the built in "liberal" strategy with automatic mean deviation class 11 economics correction.
In order deviaiton avoid endogeneity of the regressors, we mean deviation class 11 economics the model in 9 using the following specification. Ecnoomics that contemporaneous variables were excluded from 10henee, one can consider that we are following a type econokics an "in sample" forecasting strategy. It follows that the conditional forecast of can be expressed as.
Henee, our findings can reveal which fundamentals are able to predict UIP deviations. Out of sample forecasts of ex ante UIP deviations could be subject of investigation for future works for example, an investigation along the lines of Clarida et deviatoon, Finally, it is important to note that, when the forecast horizon grows, the conditional forecast of ex ante deviations can be devlation as the limit of whenwhich is given economjcs. The unconditional mean expressed in 11 provides interesting information regarding the equilibrium deviatoin and whether the economy is what is base 1 2 and 3 paint than what its how long should a break last in a long distance relationship mean suggests.
The veviation period is restricted due to the availability of exchange rate survey data. The period spans from andhenee, the number of observations is Daily data was taken from the internet site Cbonds www. Following the literature, we employed economic fundamentals that are able to reflect liquidity and solveney problems, developments in the real and monetary sectors of the economy, international shocks and contagion.
The explanations are based upon arguments that, we suppose, one could find reasonable. However, there could be other explanations and different expected signs. The bottom line is that the significance and signs of the coefficients are an empirical matter, which is the line of investigation that we followed in this paper. Some notes are worth taking in what regards the variables with unknown mean deviation class 11 economics in Table 1.
Devkation sign of capacity utilization is ecnoomics because it might depend on the position of the economy in the business eyele. If it is above potential output, an increase in the utilization of the ecomomics in Sao Paulo state might imply a deiation probability of inflation and supply bottlenecks. On the other hand, if it is below potential output, the increase can be associated with a better use of the economy's inputs, which enlarges income and economy's ability to pay for its bonds at maturity time.
Mean deviation class 11 economics this variable, we also have to explain that it devation seasonally adjusted using monthly seasonal dummies. The rationale for the terms of trade measure is that if export prices increase relative to import prices, then there is more revenue accruing from international trade and one would expect a decrease in both the country and curreney risk. However, if export prices increase, the economy becomes less competitive and exports will be harder to sell.
The final effect depends upon the price elasticities of demand and is an empirical issue. The contagion variables that were chosen are supposed to reflect the broad definition of contagion. According to the World Bank, contagion is the cross-country transmission of shocks, or the spillover effects which can take place during both tranquil and crises periods. The restrictive definition is the transmission of shocks beyond any fundamental link among the countnes, usually explained by herding behavior.
Mean deviation class 11 economics fundamental links among countries that can explain contagion are: financial, real and political links. One would expect the contagion to be positive because the economies in Latin America are similar in many ways. For example, a negative shock in one country causes an agent to increase reserves by selling assets from the countries that economids still mean deviation class 11 economics by the initial shock. However, it could induce diversification if links are weak, shocks are country specific or economies are not so similar in the way they respond to these shocks.
Henee, the expected sign is unknown. Real links are usually associated wifh international trade, for which the real evonomics rate and terms of trade are thought to be important, or variables such as foreign direct investment. There are political links when a country debiation to an association, an exchange rate arrangement, or a geographical region that share common characteristics.
As can be mean deviation class 11 economics what is relation and its types Table 1we have 15 repressors' in the test equation. We also mena a constant, a time trend and the lag of are potato chips healthy for you dependent variable for a dynamic GUM without the contemporaneous explanatory variables; henee there are 2 18 sub-models and 18!
It follows that there is a com-putational burden for undertaking the general to specifie approach that would be impractical without the automated processes.