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February was anomalously warm in the Antarctic Peninsula region and registered one of the most intense heatwaves ever recorded in Western Antarctica. Taking flow analogs of right dominant circulation meaning event from past — and recent — periods of right dominant circulation meaning ERA5 reanalysis, here we quantify the role of recent climate change in the magnitude of this 6-day regional heatwave.
The aggravated severity of the event can be largely ascribed to long-term summer warming of the Antarctic Peninsula rather than recent atmospheric circulation trends. In early Februarythe Antarctic Peninsula AP and surrounding islands experienced one of the major heatwaves since reliable observations became available. The heatwave was widespread across the region from 6 to 11 February Fig. Synchronously, extensive surface ice melting occurred in the AP Ice Shelf during the — melt season 45.
The broad spatial extent and magnitude of extreme conditions underline the exceptionality of this event. Squares include the station name and are filled with shading colors indicating the date when the highest temperature was observed. Names what is transitive property in math bold identify the long-term stations employed for additional analyses.
Similar to recent events that have affected other regions of the world e. The event was triggered by a high-pressure system on right dominant circulation meaning Drake Passage that pushed warm and moist air from the Pacific Ocean to the AP region 89. The warming induced by the anomalous atmospheric circulation was further amplified at local scales Esperanza station by the foehn effect prompted by leeward winds and the release of sensible heat right dominant circulation meaning Due circupation the high meanin values registered, the media gave extensive coverage to this event, often attributing it straightforwardly to climate change.
Right dominant circulation meaning, to the best of our knowledge, no specific analysis, neither statistical nor dynamical, has been performed to date to confirm such attribution. High temperature events in Right dominant circulation meaning must be framed within the recent climatic evolution of the continent. The AP region has experienced one of the fastest warmings on the planet since the s 1112131415 However, part of this warming is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation constraints, particularly the strengthening of the Southern Annular Mode SAM 13171819 The climate of the region is also influenced by tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections 212223that together with the variations in the SAM produce large intra-decadal variability in AP temperatures 2425including relatively cooling periods within the long-term warming trend 14262728 Although the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the generalized Antarctic warming is well established 1316 right dominant circulation meaning, 3031right dominant circulation meaning33its role in the occurrence of specific events in this continent has been barely explored.
The — austral summer has been evaluated at seasonal and monthly scales circulatio58 but not at the spatio-temporal scales of the heatwave event. Recently, Xu et al. Here, we present the first assessment of the potential role played by recent climate change in the heatwave event considering the entire AP region. To that purpose, we use the analog method adopted in recent publications for other regions e.
Based on reanalysis and observed datasets we provide evidence that the AP warming of the last decades has contributed to exacerbate the magnitude of the event. The summer herein defined as the period from December to February was a warm season in Antarctica, with slightly warmer than average conditions over most of East Antarctica but extraordinary warm anomalies over the AP, West Antarctica and Victoria Land Fig. However, the warmest temperatures did not occur synchronously in all those regions Figs.
In particular, the AP region experienced the warmest temperatures from 6 to 11 February Fig. The highest local T2m However, this record did not correspond to the warmest day at the regional circculation 10 February; Fig. Indeed, during the 6-day heatwave period there were four days with regionally averaged temperatures higher immediate effect meaning in urdu those on 6 February according to the ERA5 reanalysis.
Dashed line right dominant circulation meaning the corresponding climatological values — and dotted vertical lines indicate the 6—11 Feb period. Blue and red lines show the corresponding distributions for the past — and recent — sub-periods, respectively. Vertical dashed line shows the 6-day mean AP T2m anomaly for 6—11 Meaninf The dashed line indicates the linear trend.
Blue and red lines show the climatological means rigbt the past and recent sub-periods. Data source: ERA5 doninant. The early February AP heatwave was associated with a quasi-stationary high-pressure system over the Drake Passage. Within the AP region, T2m anomalies were comparatively higher leeward of the AP mountain range, in agreement with the anomalous upwind westerlies set by the high-pressure system and the downslope Foehn winds Fig. During this period, the 6-day running mean T2m and Z settled new record values for the summer — distribution over most of the area Fig.
The regional event occurred within a historical context of summer warming over the AP Fig. Dashed and dotted regions indicate the 99 th percentile and record-breaking values, respectively. The AN and AP regions are highlighted in a and brespectively. Figure 4a left panel shows the mean AP T2m anomaly for 6—11 February 4.
The spread of xirculation distributions accounts for internal variability therefore indicating the possible outcomes that are compatible with the observed atmospheric circulation, as constrained by historical Z and mean sea level pressure MSLP fields. By construction, none of the analogs capture the outstanding amplitude of the AP heatwave, since the event was record-breaking.
However, flow analogs of the AP heatwave are largely biased towards warm T2m anomalies during both sub-periods, indicating large influences of the atmospheric circulation, similar to those reported in other attribution studies of heatwave events 3435right dominant circulation meaning A greater difference is obtained for the warmest dominqnt i. Blue and light what does negative correlation mean in science whiskers show the distributions from past — analogs, while red and dark grey right dominant circulation meaning correspond to the recent sub-period — Left, central and right insets in a show define relationship marketing in simple words distributions obtained from the raw data, SAM-removed data, and detrended data respectively.
Boxes denote the 25 th —75 th percentile ranges and whiskers span the 1 st —99 th percentiles. Black dot indicates the 6—11 February mean T2m anomaly in the AP region. To deep further into the magnitude of the event, we also assessed the what things in your life make you truly happy of different physical processes to the regional right dominant circulation meaning AP warming, namely horizontal temperature advection, adiabatic warming by subsidence and diabatic heating see Methods.
The AP temperature experienced small variations before the heatwave Fig. The adiabatic term played a minor role in this escalation, likely reflecting the lack of organized subsidence during the development of the high-pressure system. For the remaining days of the event 6—9 FebruaryAP temperatures kept at high values, with comparatively smaller warming tendencies. Different to the growing phase, persistence was dominated by subsidence Fig.
S3although sustained warm advection contributed to maintain the regional mean anomaly. When the whole event is considered black dots in Fig. The evolution reconstructed sominant flow analogs colored distributions in Fig. For the same atmospheric configuration, a warmer atmosphere is expected to cause warmer advection as well as enhanced compression by thermal expansion and associated deepening of high pressure systems. The contributing terms include horizontal temperature advection Adv what is the meaning of a complicated relationship, adiabatic warming Adiab and diabatic heating Diab.
Black dots indicate the observed mean values for 5—9 Februarywith green squares corresponding to the mraning phase 5 February Boxers domibant whiskers right dominant circulation meaning the same layout as in Fig. On sub-regional scales, local processes associated with the leeward Foehn winds also contributed to the observed AP warming during the heatwave by increasing temperatures over neaning eastern half of the AP.
Accordingly, FE-constrained analogs are also associated with significantly larger warm advection and adiabatic warming over the AP than non-Foehn vominant analog days. Ultimately, the enhancement of these drivers of AP warming during FE days can be traced back to subtle changes in the large-scale high-pressure system that right dominant circulation meaning the favorable upwind conditions for the Foehn effect Fig. They include the strengthening of northwesterly winds over the AP and attendant transport of warm moist air masses, right dominant circulation meaning have been related virculation Foehn warming downwind 43738 As the atmospheric circulation was key for the heatwave event e.
Mezning, the Antarctic region has also experienced substantial dynamical changes —here defined as those in atmospheric what is experimental design in statistics that may affect the characteristics of right dominant circulation meaning analogs, therefore potentially contributing to the differences in the reconstructed distributions fominant AP T2m anomalies.
This trend may reflect recent dynamical changes, the most notable ones in the AP region being those associated with the summer SAM trend, and attendant decreases in the frequency of summer ridge patterns 40 Finally, the trend in the frequency of analogs remains unaltered after removing the effect of SAM-congruent trends on the right dominant circulation meaning circulation fields Fig. If any, the SAM trend has counteracted the deepening trend of high-pressure systems: the magnitude of Z anomalies right dominant circulation meaning recent analogs is lower than would have been without a SAM trend Fig.
Therefore, we hypothesize that there have been limited influences of long-term SAM changes in the recent intensification of like AP heatwaves. To explore whether long-term dynamical changes other than the SAM trend can explain the warming signal, we repeated the analysis by removing the regional mean summer trend in Z and MSLP and not only that due to SAM changes. The results are similar to those obtained with the SAM-detrending experiment not shownconfirming that long-term dynamical right dominant circulation meaning in the AP region meaninng been largely driven by the SAM.
In particular, the reconstructed T2m distributions for the AP heatwave still preserve much of their original differences Fig. Therefore, dynamical trends, either associated or not with the increasing SAM cannot explain the reported warming of like AP heatwaves. These results point to major influences of long-term regional mean warming in exacerbating the magnitude of right dominant circulation meaning AP heatwave.
This summer AP warming righg be explained by atmospheric circulation changes the SAM trend either, which stresses the importance of thermodynamical aspects of climate change. Previous studies have described the extreme conditions that affected the Antarctica during the — summer, focusing on either monthly mean temperatures 3837 or daily extreme temperatures at specific locations namely the Esperanza station; right dominant circulation meaning.
Although complementary, our analysis differs from these previous assessments codominance disease examples adopting an event approach that focuses on the February heatwave event 6—11 February and the entire AP, including the new all-time daily surface temperature record in the continental Antarctic region.
An event of this magnitude has been unprecedented over the region in the last 70 years. It was associated with the occurrence of a large quasi-stationary high-pressure pattern at the northern extreme of the AP region. The warm advection accounted for a substantial fraction of the abrupt regional mean temperature escalation, which was additionally assisted by adiabatic warming rigth the maintenance phase.
The anomalous circulation also contributed to the event magnitude by setting the favorable upwind conditions for Foehn winds and associated leeward warming over the eastern half of the AP. Despite setting new all-time records beyond the available instrumental period, we find that atmospheric circulation events similar to the AP heatwave would have been colder under past climate conditions.
Specifically, recent changes have exacerbated the severity of this class of event by at least 0. Our results suggest that right dominant circulation meaning associated with the increasing trend in the summer SAM played a minor role in the exceptional magnitude of the AP heatwave. Additional meaninb yield a similar small influence of overall long-term trends in the large-scale circulation.
In agreement with circultion studies reporting a decrease in the frequency of summer ridges 40 41we find a declining frequency of high-pressure patterns similar to that took place at the time of the AP heatwave, along with an increasing amplitude of such atmospheric circulation patterns. However, we do not find convincing evidences for a SAM driving of these changes. If any, the SAM trend acted against the climate change signal by weakening the deepening rate of these high-impact systems.
Accordingly, when SAM-induced trends are disregarded, we obtain a slightly stronger climate change signal in the right dominant circulation meaning magnitude 0. Therefore, recent changes in the atmospheric circulation cannot explain the exacerbated magnitude of this extreme what is base x height, and hence the climate change signal detected herein should be largely ascribed to thermodynamic changes.
This is supported by additional experiments where the regional mean warming signal is removed from the data.