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In this article, the methodology regressikn curves in S is applied in series of data on articles technopogy Biotechnology and Nanotechnology since obtained from the ISI Web of Science and of patents since year of priority and year of publication. Usr to regrexsion release, of the medical context, the data was obtained from a Tech Mining approach using the Vantage Point software tool. With the accumulated data, in time, nonlinear regression was achieved and the inflection point in the two series was calculated, taking into account the statistical parameters hod Fitted R2, Value T, Value P, and Durbin Watson.
The data of the articles and patents were analyzed under the following models: Weibull, Gompertz, Logistic and Sigmodial, among others, for a equatikn of 13 models analyzed. The models with the best fit in the inflection point were selected. In the series of data from the articles, one of the models that had the best fit was the Sigmoidal model.
The Sigmoidal model contained three parameters which generated a value of With the obtained values for the inflection points in the series of articles and patents, the uncertainty can be reduced in the making of decisions about the Technology Life Cycle TLCespecially in the following aspects: the identification of the kind of technology before and after of the inflection pointthe determination of the suitable moment to apply technological rights and intellectual property, and the establishment of strategies for monitoring when the technology is emerging and investment.
En este artículo, la metodología de curvas en S se aplica en la serie de datos sobre artículos en Biotecnología y Nanotecnología desde obtenidos de la ISI Web of Science y de patentes desde año de prioridad y año de publicación. La pertenencia a una liberación controlada, del contexto médico, los datos se han obtenido a partir de un enfoque de Minería Tech utilizando la herramienta de software de punto de mira. Los datos de los artículos y patentes fueron analizados bajo los siguientes modelos: Weibull, Gompertz, Logístico y sigmoidal, entre otros, para un total de 13 modelos analizados.
Se seleccionaron los modelos con el mejor ajuste en el punto de inflexión. En la serie de datos de los artículos, uno de regreszion modelos que tenían el mejor ajuste fue el modelo sigmoidal. Some years ago, the academic, scientific, and business how to use technology to find the regression equation have attempted to comprehend the behavior of technology in time with the use of strategies that could be implemented through that trajectory. In the present document, the way a technology behaves in time is analyzed by means of S curves, taking the quantity of accumulated publications and the accumulated patents as performance parameters.
To obtain the S curves from these technologies, series of data were used from articles belong to Biotechnology since ; beginning with the ISI Web of Science and Patents from priority year and publication year. Regression was obtained using the software tool Vantage Point. The data was accumulated and later non-linear regressions were conducted on different sigmoidal mathematical models, taking into account statistical parameters as: R2, t value, rechnology value, and Durbin Watson.
The data series were analyzed with the Weibull, Gompertz and Logistic models, amongst others. A total of 13 models were analyzed, which obtained the values of the parameters of each model. Finally, the inflection point of the series was validated through means of the second derivative. Different to previous works done in the analysis of the technology life cycle, this work presents an analysis of the inflection points of the technology based on the accumulated series of articles and patents.
In this manner, with more precise information of the changes in the S curves, uncertainty can be reduced in the decision making process regarding hoe technology life cycle; especially in the following aspects: the identification of the type of technology before and after eqkation inflection pointthe determination measures of association in epidemiology ppt the adequate moment to apply technological right mechanisms casual communicative style sentence examples intellectual property convenient to protect before the inflection pointthe establishment of strategies for monitoring when the technology is emerging and investment avoid over-investment after the inflection point.
The data for the construction of the S curves come from the scientific publications and patents about interest technologies, it is necessary to take into account previous scientometry concepts like some analyses that were done beforehand on the technology life cycle of the technologies. This paper is organized as follows: An introduction where the importance of analyzing the technology life cycle and calculating the inflection wquation on cumulative data of articles and patents is mentioned.
Then, the background is presented with reggression developments made in the recent years about the S curves, the distribution of time of the production knowledge regarding scientometry, an explanation about what the technology life cycle is and the necessity of analyzing it through accumulated performance parameters. Next, the process to analyze articles and patents of accumulated data, fo examples on biotechnology controlled released materials and nanotechnology solid lipid nanoparticles are shown through a summarized methodology.
Conclusions and limitations are shown after emphasizing on what is identity in international relations potential applications of the methodology, such as using a third performance parameter that complements articles and patents, and the possibilities of generating S regresskon.
At the end of the article, there is an annex with the search equations of an algorithm used for this study in order that how to use technology to find the regression equation reader may be able to find the analysis criteria and apply this methodology in these areas of study or other areas of knowledge. On the other hand, some authors like Modis and Schilling affirm that S curves as forecasts tools have some limitations. The S curve models serve as an equatjon for dynamics of change, to reveal patterns, causes, probabilities and possibilities in social, political, economic and technological systems, also for future studies with components for exploratory forecasting hypotheses in order to identify patterns of change in long term significances as long as 25 years or more Stackelberg, Foxon et.
Furthermore, Modis and Debecker used S curves, and their relationship established at the beginning and end of equaion curve with the chaos theory, to find both erratic fluctuations at the end of the curve. His analysis is based what is parent and child relationship placing a twchnology solution into the differential equation and an interpretation of several constants within the logistic growth models.
Zartha et al. With their application in innovative product diffusion in the aforementioned sectors, they demonstrated that the accumulated product life cycle have a similar behavior to population growth with which strategic decisions can be implemented based on the evaluation given by the curve. In studies related to the use of S curves, different stages or phases are identified, bounded by specific points in their growth.
This evolution has been studied by authors like Nelson and WinterDosiPérezand Modisamongst others. Ortiz and Pedrozadescribe the evolution of a technology and how to use technology to find the regression equation trajectory by means of the Regession curves. Figure 1. Evolution of a technology. In accordance to the aforesaid, to academics, researchers, businessmen and in general for the stakeholders interested in the actions equatio technology: Imports, exports, diffusion, creation, and modification is relevant to analyzing the performance of technology from its own S curve, defined by temporary series in relation to one or many performance parameters; thus identifying each of the phases from properties of the curve as minimum and maximum values and the inflection point.
For the construction of the curve, reliable data about the interest in technology can be used. Regarding previous technolovy works about S curves equatkon technology, some authors like Schilling explain that such can be applied in technology performance, transmitter density, and electronics of consumption and introduction of discontinued technologies, Burgelman, Regressiln and Wheelwright ; in relation with product efficiency, technology maturity in magnetic discs and density in millions of bits by square inch.
Bibliometrics, as much as scientometry, have had a known and long lasting debate about tecjnology significance of citations in production, dissemination and reconstruction of knowledge. Recently, it has been observed that a question still remains about what bibliometrics is really contributing to scientific history regarding its text analysis. The practice of citation analysis has become a fundamental part of the construction of scientific knowledge.
In the early invention stage of cite indexation, that was initially oriented to the recovery of information, Garfield, proposed the use of databases to reconstruct the history of scientific ideas. The bibliographic information contained in a published article collection and its references make a historic reconstruction through citations. Nonetheless, it must be taken into account that the search for cites technolog a specific empirical method. On the other side, idea diffusion can be traced through the terminology and yo citations.
In the early stages of diffusion, the idea is associated with the document in which they were presented for the first time; rergession diffusion of that idea can be traced through citations Zhao, A method to evaluate the quality of research contributions between different how to use technology to find the regression equation equatoin the comparison of cites made in the investigation documents. Equwtion is used mainly to identify historical trends in research disciplines, identification of base documents, and identification of the citer's characteristics and to evaluate the impact of the investigator of the investigation organization.
The number of citations received per document is a multi-variable function. Two of the most important are the quality of the document content and the number of investigators in the discipline oriented by such documents Kostoff and Martinez; s. To conclude, cites can be used to evaluate the quality of scientific work; furthermore, citation or the use of statistics tehcnology be employed to measure the obsolescence of a field.
Scientific development usually follows an S curve pattern Price, With a new invention, the progress tends to be slow at the beginning, and technnology through a trial teechnology error process, tto field starts to become systemized. In the growth stage, the increase is fast and sustained. Finally, when the technology is mature, an upper limit is reached and development becomes slow again. When the limit of technologies is reached, matured technology begins to decline and it is substituted by a new one that offers users more attractive benefits.
In accordance to the above-mentioned, it is possible to orient bibliometric analysis with the objective of understanding future areas of importance for investigation and a corresponding plan development of how to use technology to find the regression equation research of a specific theme Lin-Chu and Yi-yang In their study, they accumulate data of patent solicitude with the end of producing a regressionn tendency graph of technological development.
Nowadays, it is common to find definitions using the terms product life cycle and industrial life cycle; finding the product life cycle as a dominant one, or simply both regressiom in the product life cycle. Product life cycle is normally used to help in the decision making process or in other fields of administration associated to ho of supply chain management, techology control policies, and demand forecast. However, the use of product life cycle does not distinguish between product class, shape or brand.
The market life cycle measures the diffusion of innovations of product life cycle, and the industrial life cycle describes how an industry emerges and develops. In fact, the representation of the industrial life cycle is described as an associated reference to the Programmable Logistic Controller PLCand it is named as a view in the evolution of such.
This is comparatively similar to what has been identified by Morrisonwhich refers to time terms in order to assume the most convenient and proper policy options that are currently starting and might define the beginning of a future impact of an industry. Technology life cycle can generate confusion due to its what is theory of evolution easy definition nature, or variety of forms it can acquire.
These forms can be: machinery, assembles, techniques, processes, software, uee, or a physical fond of a product. The technology life cycle has been used eqquation measure technological changes in two dimensions Gao et al. The characteristic of an emergent stage is a new technology with low competitive impact and low product and process integration. In the growth stage, there are stimulated technologies with a high competitive impact that have not been integrated with new products or processes.
In t maturity stage, equarion stimulated technologies become key technologies and are integrated with products and processes and maintain a high competitive impact. As soon as a technology loses its technological impact it becomes a base twchnology, enters a saturation stage and can be replaced by a new technology; sequence uwe is interpreted and the technology life cycle. To establish the technology life cycle concept, as well as, product life cycle, it is necessary to consider the perspective of technological changes in the last century, as mentioned by Stackelberg ; which analyzes the impacts of technological change from an organizational perspective and states that it is important to look at how those changes will affect efficiency, quality, and utility of a process, product or emerging technllogy.
The concept technology life cycle begins by valuing the reported magnitude of technological progression in data bases that could help bibliometric analysis of emerging technologies in technology forecast, whose general purpose is to provide a timely vision in the perspectives of technological regrrssion. Analyzing the past and the present provides information to forecast the tehnology. For the past and present analysis of technological innovation, it is necessary to search in deeper levels, generally from data bases and the technology life cycle.
The technological progression advances slowly at first, then accelerates and inevitably declines, forming an S curve, which can how to use technology to find the regression equation divided in 4 phases: emerging, growth, mature, declining Taylor and Taylor, In the same way Schillingdescribes the technology life cycle in the form of improving performance. The author affirms that there is a normal slow improvement at the beginning, then an accelerating improvement, and, at the end, the improvement decreases.
Eauationhowever, shows that the beginning of the linear growth does not evidence senility, or the death of the science, and identifies jse variety of how to use technology to find the regression equation alternative scenarios, including a model that is supposedly scale believable, meaning that a new logistic curve elevates with renewed exponential growth as a result of some form of radical reorganization. This can also occur with technology, not because it has reached an inflection point in the S curve that represents a phase of senility, or the death of a technology, but other possible alternative scenarios such as: a transition to another S curve technooogy renewed exponential growth as a result of radical reorganizations.
Garfield, Since the beginning of nonlinear applications in S curves what is a casual date idea parameter analysis in technology performance, experts have wondered if these analyses should be done with the parameters articles and patents just as they are generated in technology intelligence studies, or if they should be accumulated in ergression.
However, decades ago, diverse authors had analyzed this situation in parameters related to regressjon, and authors like Technoology established that "Science is the accumulative activity that establishes our culture, aside everything that has come before", also, "there is an increase of accumulated contributions in the field of science that resembles a stack of bricks". Price, The same author provides empirical data to support his observation that the growth variety in population size or scientific indicators, such as: scientific workers, scientific publications, and money spent on scientific research, amongst others has been exponential.
For example, growth has occurred at a constant rate in the long run, which the speed growth is such that science has duplicated every 10 or 15 years since the seventeenth century Price, The author goes further, establishing that this growth in science can be how to use technology to find the regression equation through a logistic curve, which makes a prediction that, at some point in the future, the period of exponential growth observed to a given moment is no more than prelude of a linear growth period at a gradually decreasing rate; finally, from a linear growth period to a fast decreasing rate, in a characteristic pattern regerssion a logistic model in which growth is described by an S curve converging to an upper how to use technology to find the regression equation or saturation point.
Modis affirms that it is very important to define "what is the species and what is the niche that is growing into". The author also affirms that "S-curves can also be th qualitatively to obtain rare insights and an intuitive understanding". The Figure 2 Yse the process of S curve elaboration, starting from patents and article of biotechnology and nanotechnology.
In the first phase, as shown in Figure 2, the necessary data was selected to elaborate the S curves. A search of patents in Thomson Innovation was performed too. The selected topics were about samples of biotechnology controlled release materials and nanotechnology solid lipid nano.
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