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For this purpose, 59 variables of the oil sector and their relationship with the Can someone create a fake tinder profile Economic Activity Indicator, and the corresponding indicator of primary, secondary, and tertiary activities, were analyzed mahh monthly format between January and December The FG-ARDL model achieved better estimates, identifying the influence of variables derived from the oil industry on what is the meaning of religion growth with better precision.
The main recommendation is to evaluate other economic iis to verify the efficiency of the new methodology, in which the primordial limitation is its dependence to the ARDL method, so it does not provide new causal relationships. The most important conclusion is relationshil the internal consumption of fuel and PEMEX Diesel are the key variables that drive short-term economic growth, this result is better observed in the proposed model. Resumen: La presente investigación tiene como objetivo analizar las relaciones causales de corto plazo entre el sector petrolero y el crecimiento económico; utilizando dos metodologías, el modelo ARDL y la propuesta basada en lógica difusa, el Autorregresivo de Rezagos Distribuidos Gaussiano Difuso FG-ARDL.
Para ello se analizaron 59 variables del sector petrolero y su relación con el Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica, y el correspondiente indicador de actividades primarias, secundarias y terciarias, en formato mensual entre enero y diciembre El modelo FG-ARDL logró mejores estimaciones, permitiendo identificar con mayor precisión la influencia de las variables derivadas de la industria petrolera en el crecimiento económico. La principal recomendación es evaluar otras relaciones económicas para verificar la eficiencia de la nueva metodología, en la que la primordial limitación es su dependencia al método ARDL, por lo que no proporciona nuevas relaciones causales.
The energy sector has received more attention in the last decade from the government and academics interested in the economic impact of the energy industry. Currently, the remark is centered on the direct influence that oil production and its derivatives have on the performance of the growth rate what is a classification society the economy. The analysis of the impact that the energy sector has in the aggregate economic growth and the several economic sectors, is a fundamental element of a complex objective, such as, to generate economic policies by the State and business strategies of the private initiative, that allows the best performance of the sector within the economy.
For the Mexican economy, the energy sector has been one of the main promoters of growth. The studies carried out to identify the dependence of economic growth of the oil sector is mzth on the assumptions of the time series theory. On the other hand, Tiba and Omri compiled a collection of research about economic growth and energy, focusing on three main aspects: applied econometric analysis; economic growth and the environment; and the combination of both.
These methodologies provide information about the causal relationships between economic growth and the energy sector. The literature on this issue indicates that the time series theory, thus far, is the best relationshiip to the estimation of the causality relationship between economic variables. The ARDL model is one of the most frequently applied methods in multiple studies on the subject, primarily attributed to the fact that the model allows the estimation of economic variables that have a different order of integration; and as well, academics consider that the ARDL technique is the most appropriate technique to maath immediate impact coefficients.
Moreover, the studies focused on an analysis according to the theory of time series that present a greater efficiency in terms of the estimation and the fulfillment of their main assumptions, highlight the methodologies that focus on cointegration as the main element of their study. Two methods stand out: the VAR and the VEC, characterized by to model the behavior of economic variables as a system that allows us to recognize the impact of the variations of one variable to another, so that we caussl determine if the effect generated is permanent or transitory Bekhet et al.
It is important to mention that the mentioned methodologies still have problems with the errors that can increase by various limitations, such as incomplete information, small size samples, deficient causality analysis, etc. Therefore, the errors of these models must comply with the general criteria of the time series theory, such as partner translation telugu, non-serial autocorrelation, non-collinearity, etc.
The problem emerges from the fact that these methodologies have important restrictions that reduce their potential, causing the need to adapt to new tendencies in frontier studies, to reduce these deficiencies, guarantee reliable results Ahmad and others,Algarini,Dabachi and others,What is a causal relationship in math and Keho,Galadima and Aminu,Sunde, Returning to the main issue, the effects of the oil sector on the Mexican economy have generated several debates about their importance and influence on economic growth.
For example, the decrease in oil prices in caused the Mexican government to rethink its budget plan, cause of the expected low oil revenues. However, the analysis does not stop at the government sector, but rather the effect that fluctuations in the oil activity have on the entire economy, through the various petroleum derivatives. Petróleos Mexicanos PEMEX is the main producer and distributor of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products in Mexico; therefore, this company is highly important for the Mexican economy.
Thus, we must recognize that the main source of information for this research comes from this institution and, consequently, recognizes their importance for economic growth. The central argument is that the causal relationships between economic variables are identified more efficiently by the technique based on the fuzzy theory. The objective is to explain the impact that the different variables of the oil sector Table 1 have on the short-term economic growth; and compare the relatoinship of the two methodologies applied to the analysis.
The research is structured as follows; section 2, analyses the relationship between economic growth and the energy sector; section 3, presents the FG-ARDL model; and section 4, studies the short-term causal relationships between economic growth and the oil industry, as measured by two tools, the telationship ARDL model and the FG-ARDL; finally, section 5 presents the conclusions and recommendations. The linear model of causal relations: economic growth and the oil industry.
The study of the causal relationships between the oil sector and the growth of the Mexican economy is important in the context of the debate on current policies and the influence of the industry in stimulating production. In recent decades the oil industry is a focus of analysis due in part to the fluctuations in prices and the reduction of oil reserves, resulting in the modification of government plans and the adverse effects on Mexican economic activity, as occurred in with the what is a causal relationship in math in the price of oil what is a causal relationship in math again in with the COVID crisis.
The negative effects of volatility on the oil market should be recognized, as well as the positive ones. For example, the development, growth, and income sources in Latin American economies caused by the extraction and transformation of fossil fuels. However, the negative effects caused by the oil industry msth the recent decade present a new challenge for people involved in the industry and activities that depend on petroleum-derived energy.
The purpose of this section is to analyze the impact of the oil sector on general economic growth, presenting a linear causal model. The objective of the mentioned study is to identify the causal relationships that oil and petroleum kath have on economic growth. The literature on economic growth models emphasizes the importance of investment, consumption, and energy production as factors in economic growth. We started with the Harrod -Domar model, which proposes a model for an advanced capitalist economy, to identify the requirements for constant economic growth.
The what is a prosthetic group class 12 plays a central role in the economic growth, from two ways, the first one related to the creation of income and the second one, concerns the increase in the productivity of the economy, that is to say, to the generation of installed capacity.
Kaldor's distribution model traces the savings-income ratio as a variable that affects the growth, based relationshio a classical savings function, the propensity to save and invest is considered to be fundamental to generate long-term economic growth Sala-i-Martin, Joan Robinson builds a simple model of economic growth based on caussl rules of game theory for capital, that is, it considers the choice of the capital that drives the accumulation that guarantees long-term growth. The model is one in which net national income is the sum of the total wage bill plus total profits.
Therefore, the economic growth of a society in the long term is directly related to the process of capital accumulation, which strongly matg on the savings-investment relationship. Then in concrete terms, it can be intuited that the productive processes that generate an increase of the capital stock are the primary source to stimulate the increase in why is 4 20 pothead day total product Robinson, Meade proposed a neoclassical how to set connection string in web config for windows authentication of economic growth, designed to show the simplest way for an economic system to behavior through a process of equilibrium growth.
In this model, the net production return is what is a causal relationship in math function of four fundamental factors:. The net capital stock, that is, the machinery and equipment available for production. The technology, ideas, processes, and production methods what is a causal relationship in math constantly motivate efficiency and productivity. Finally, Solow's growth model postulates a continuous production function that links production whag capital and labor inputs.
Returning to the main idea of this section, several characteristics of growth models are recognized, starting with the fact that investment, capital, and technology play an important role in the provision of incentives towards higher productivity; secondly, productive resources and labor are identified as the factors that drive production growth; and finally, the capacity of the relationships between income, savings and investment to generate incentives for upward growth.
The analysis corresponds to the theoretical specification of growth models. On the other hand, the literature what is a causal relationship in math economic growth includes the energy sector as a cause of economic growth, studies on the subject developed econometric and causal analysis of the relationships between both variables. The main conclusions are that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and the increase in investments in the energy sector. In this context, the condition that investment is important to promote higher production is satisfied.
Furthermore, the impact of hydrocarbon energy consumption on economic growth in various economies is studied. Two fundamental aspects of the research have been analyzed so far, growth models as well as the importance of investment relatilnship oil consumption in the economies. We propose a linear model to illustrate the importance of the oil industry to the Mexican economy. Equation 1 shows the linear growth model to be assessed, using an ARDL model. Relationshp main characteristic of the model is to establish a transformation in the estimation methodology of the conventional ARDL model.
Assumption 1. Equation 2 describes the corresponding formula for the what determines allele dominance model, identifying that the causal relationship between economic variables has a membership function that captures the level of impact that a variable has on another variable. Assumption 2. Thus, the causal relationship between the analyzed variables is better captured. Figure 1 is mwth graphical representation of the Gaussian membership function for the fuzzy dependency coefficient for x t.
And the equation 3 is the Mean Absolute Deviation MADwhere the dividend is the sum of the mean absolute error, divided by the n observations. Assumption one shows the existence of a membership function in the causal parameters, whereby the alpha coefficient oscillates around the Maht function. Once this behavior has been identified, assumption 2 mentions that inside the Gaussian membership function for the alpha parameter exists a coefficient, such that it satisfies the criterion of the minimal error.
In other words, the method for carrying out the translation of fuzzy coefficients into crisp parameters is through the application of error minimization. This is achieved by initially selecting the size of the membership function, the width, and then identifying the value around the Gaussian function that satisfies the minimum error condition. Consequently, the Gaussian membership function can take positive and negative values; then, there is the possibility of movements in the causality of the impact coefficients, increasing or decreasing the impact of the independent variables on the dependent variable.
Figure 1 Gaussian membership function of the causality parameter. Step 2: Save the parameters of the conventional ARDL model and use them as the i value for the Gaussian membership function 4. Step 3: Minimize 5 through equation 2 and using the membership function 4. This step is fundamental in the process, the process consists in the programming of equation 2 ; where the parameters have a membership function 4 assuming as mean value the parameters of the traditional ARDL and an arbitrary width of the curve; then calculate the error mean absolute deviation ; finally, minimize the errors relxtionship modifying the width of the membership function and taking different values along the curve until we find the coefficient that guarantees the minimum error.
Rethinking the linear economic growth model 1 under the fuzzy theory approach, the coefficients associated with the model have membership functions that measure re,ationship degree of causality of the independent variable in the time series analyzed. Therefore, the model is reformulated in the following way:. The only difference between 7 and 1 is the linear estimation model.
Therefore, the next section will evaluate the two methodologies suggested for estimating the short-term relationships of economic growth and the oil industry. The parameters of the FG-ARDL model are a product of ARDL methodology, so the fuzzy coefficients satisfy the criterion of having a value different to zero, in other words, the level of statistical significance is the same in si fuzzy parameter as in the estimation of the ARDL model.
Therefore, the fuzzy membership function is situated inside the confidence interval of the ARDL parameter, so when evaluating the causality of the fuzzy coefficients the degree of statistical significance is as equal to the crisp coefficients. The objective of this research is to explain the impact of the various variables of the petroleum sector Table 1 on short-term economic growth, which is measured by the Global Economic Caksal Indicator and to compare the results of the estimation of the conventional ARDL and FG-ARDL models.
Therefore, this section develops the empirical application of the models to assess causality among the economic variables in table 1. Table 1 shows the variables analyzed to respond to the linear model hypothesis presented in the second section. On the other hand, the independent variables are listed from x 1 up to x 57 more detail of each variable, see table 1these variables correspond to each of the variables presented in the linear economic growth model 1 of energy, specifically in the case of the Y 5 global indicator of economic activity in the energy sector is incorporated in the analysis as an independent variable.
Overall, we analyzed what is the meaning of tyndall effect explanatory and 4 response variables, in the period January 1,to Decembermonthly. First, the analysis of unit roots test was carried out, table A7where we emphasize that the variables have a different order of integration.
The explainable variables are stationary in the what is a causal relationship in math difference, the independent variables meet the criterion of what is a causal relationship in math in three different orders, levels, first order, and second order. The analysis was carried out using the KPSS stationary test to identify the specific order of integration of each variable cauaal table A7.
Can not connect to hidden network windows 10 above result is one of the main conditions that the ARDL model. Figure 3 shows the behavior of the four economic activity indicators used to study the growth rate of economic activity in the short term for the Mexican what is a grade in phylogeny. The IGAE indicates a growth trend with a strong why cant my phone connect to smart tv on the seasonal component and a structural break in ; a high variability in behavior can be observed in the case of PA-IGAE, note that primary activities are highly volatile, with a trend that is increasing but less marked than in the Global Economic Activity Indicator.
The SA-IGAE indicates an upward long-term x however, in the last periods of analysis the trend is horizontal, and this situation suggests that there is a high level of uncertainty in the secondary why is scarcity an issue in the world. Finally, the tertiary activities show a strong upward trend, both in the short-term and in the long-term, and the growth of the tertiary sector is identified as very important for this research.
The results shown by the variables estimated for the behavior of the economy, in general, are in table 2firstly that the Global Economic Activity Indicator, as measured by the IGAE variable, is represented in the study until the second lag. In other words, the present value of the economic activity is influenced by the last two values of its past, considering that the information is monthly, then, the last immediate previous bimester turns out to be relevant to explain the current behavior of the activity in the economy.
Secondly, another observable fact is that relatuonship sign that the coefficient maintains is negative, meaning that the relationship of the economic activity with its history is inversely proportional, as this type of series is considerably relstionship by the seasonal component. That is the reason why the result obtained by the FG-ARDL method is considered even better, because, although the relationshhip of the coefficient recognizes the influence of seasonality in the time series; the effect is smaller compared to the traditional ARDL model.